Current meteorological models from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology indicate a subtropical high-pressure system over São Paulo, driving daytime highs toward 23–25 °C on May 17 under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. This setup aligns with typical May climatology in the region, where average maximum temperatures hover near 23 °C, though recent ensemble forecasts show modest warming from clearer conditions and reduced Atlantic moisture. Traders have priced the 23 °C or higher outcome at 59.5 percent because model consensus favors these readings, with only minor uncertainty from potential afternoon cloud cover that could cap peaks near 22 °C. Updated guidance expected from INMET within the next 24 hours will refine the range and may shift probabilities if dew-point or wind trends change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 17?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 17?
23°C or higher 63%
22°C 22%
20°C 10%
21°C 6%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
3%
20°C
10%
21°C
6%
22°C
22%
23°C or higher
63%
23°C or higher 63%
22°C 22%
20°C 10%
21°C 6%
NEW
NEW
May 17, 2026
13°C or below
$671 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$215 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$415 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$396 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$230 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$721 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$275 Vol.
3%
20°C
$610 Vol.
10%
21°C
$422 Vol.
6%
22°C
$483 Vol.
22%
23°C or higher
$893 Vol.
63%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current meteorological models from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology indicate a subtropical high-pressure system over São Paulo, driving daytime highs toward 23–25 °C on May 17 under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. This setup aligns with typical May climatology in the region, where average maximum temperatures hover near 23 °C, though recent ensemble forecasts show modest warming from clearer conditions and reduced Atlantic moisture. Traders have priced the 23 °C or higher outcome at 59.5 percent because model consensus favors these readings, with only minor uncertainty from potential afternoon cloud cover that could cap peaks near 22 °C. Updated guidance expected from INMET within the next 24 hours will refine the range and may shift probabilities if dew-point or wind trends change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$5,315End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current meteorological models from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology indicate a subtropical high-pressure system over São Paulo, driving daytime highs toward 23–25 °C on May 17 under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. This setup aligns with typical May climatology in the region, where average maximum temperatures hover near 23 °C, though recent ensemble forecasts show modest warming from clearer conditions and reduced Atlantic moisture. Traders have priced the 23 °C or higher outcome at 59.5 percent because model consensus favors these readings, with only minor uncertainty from potential afternoon cloud cover that could cap peaks near 22 °C. Updated guidance expected from INMET within the next 24 hours will refine the range and may shift probabilities if dew-point or wind trends change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,315End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRCurrent meteorological models from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology indicate a subtropical high-pressure system over São Paulo, driving daytime highs toward 23–25 °C on May 17 under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. This setup aligns with typical May climatology in the region, where average maximum temperatures hover near 23 °C, though recent ensemble forecasts show modest warming from clearer conditions and reduced Atlantic moisture. Traders have priced the 23 °C or higher outcome at 59.5 percent because model consensus favors these readings, with only minor uncertainty from potential afternoon cloud cover that could cap peaks near 22 °C. Updated guidance expected from INMET within the next 24 hours will refine the range and may shift probabilities if dew-point or wind trends change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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