Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daily maximum near 23–25°C for Madrid on May 18, driven by stable high-pressure conditions and moderate westerly flow that limit daytime heating. These model runs place the highest probability on 24°C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probability of 43.5 percent and supporting 23°C and 25°C as the next most likely outcomes. Historical May climatology at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport shows average highs around 22–24°C, providing a baseline against which current guidance sits slightly above normal. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus heavily ahead of final verification, with uncertainty remaining over minor shifts in cloud cover or wind that could alter the observed peak by 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on May 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 18?
24°C 43%
23°C 28%
25°C 18%
22°C 8%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
8%
23°C
28%
24°C
43%
25°C
18%
26°C
5%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
1%
24°C 43%
23°C 28%
25°C 18%
22°C 8%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
$366 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$767 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,285 Vol.
1%
21°C
$841 Vol.
1%
22°C
$1,102 Vol.
8%
23°C
$910 Vol.
28%
24°C
$674 Vol.
43%
25°C
$681 Vol.
18%
26°C
$230 Vol.
5%
27°C
$293 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$503 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daily maximum near 23–25°C for Madrid on May 18, driven by stable high-pressure conditions and moderate westerly flow that limit daytime heating. These model runs place the highest probability on 24°C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probability of 43.5 percent and supporting 23°C and 25°C as the next most likely outcomes. Historical May climatology at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport shows average highs around 22–24°C, providing a baseline against which current guidance sits slightly above normal. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus heavily ahead of final verification, with uncertainty remaining over minor shifts in cloud cover or wind that could alter the observed peak by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$7,654End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daily maximum near 23–25°C for Madrid on May 18, driven by stable high-pressure conditions and moderate westerly flow that limit daytime heating. These model runs place the highest probability on 24°C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probability of 43.5 percent and supporting 23°C and 25°C as the next most likely outcomes. Historical May climatology at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport shows average highs around 22–24°C, providing a baseline against which current guidance sits slightly above normal. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus heavily ahead of final verification, with uncertainty remaining over minor shifts in cloud cover or wind that could alter the observed peak by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,654End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDRecent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daily maximum near 23–25°C for Madrid on May 18, driven by stable high-pressure conditions and moderate westerly flow that limit daytime heating. These model runs place the highest probability on 24°C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probability of 43.5 percent and supporting 23°C and 25°C as the next most likely outcomes. Historical May climatology at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport shows average highs around 22–24°C, providing a baseline against which current guidance sits slightly above normal. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus heavily ahead of final verification, with uncertainty remaining over minor shifts in cloud cover or wind that could alter the observed peak by 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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