Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s AEMET show stable springtime high pressure dominating central Iberia, supporting a maximum temperature in Madrid on May 18 most likely between 23–25 °C. With no incoming cold fronts or strong thermal ridges expected through the weekend, daytime heating under partly cloudy skies should peak near 24 °C, consistent with the market’s narrow spread around that level. Climatological baselines for mid-May place average highs at 22–24 °C, so current guidance sits only modestly above normal; any late-model shift in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction could easily tip the outcome one degree either way before final observations are recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on May 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 18?
24°C 35%
23°C 28%
25°C 19%
22°C 10%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
6%
22°C
10%
23°C
28%
24°C
35%
25°C
19%
26°C
6%
27°C
2%
28°C or higher
1%
24°C 35%
23°C 28%
25°C 19%
22°C 10%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
$240 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$104 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$676 Vol.
1%
21°C
$79 Vol.
6%
22°C
$107 Vol.
10%
23°C
$299 Vol.
28%
24°C
$55 Vol.
35%
25°C
$309 Vol.
19%
26°C
$77 Vol.
6%
27°C
$63 Vol.
2%
28°C or higher
$198 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s AEMET show stable springtime high pressure dominating central Iberia, supporting a maximum temperature in Madrid on May 18 most likely between 23–25 °C. With no incoming cold fronts or strong thermal ridges expected through the weekend, daytime heating under partly cloudy skies should peak near 24 °C, consistent with the market’s narrow spread around that level. Climatological baselines for mid-May place average highs at 22–24 °C, so current guidance sits only modestly above normal; any late-model shift in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction could easily tip the outcome one degree either way before final observations are recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$2,049End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s AEMET show stable springtime high pressure dominating central Iberia, supporting a maximum temperature in Madrid on May 18 most likely between 23–25 °C. With no incoming cold fronts or strong thermal ridges expected through the weekend, daytime heating under partly cloudy skies should peak near 24 °C, consistent with the market’s narrow spread around that level. Climatological baselines for mid-May place average highs at 22–24 °C, so current guidance sits only modestly above normal; any late-model shift in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction could easily tip the outcome one degree either way before final observations are recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,049End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDRecent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s AEMET show stable springtime high pressure dominating central Iberia, supporting a maximum temperature in Madrid on May 18 most likely between 23–25 °C. With no incoming cold fronts or strong thermal ridges expected through the weekend, daytime heating under partly cloudy skies should peak near 24 °C, consistent with the market’s narrow spread around that level. Climatological baselines for mid-May place average highs at 22–24 °C, so current guidance sits only modestly above normal; any late-model shift in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction could easily tip the outcome one degree either way before final observations are recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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