Official observations from Mexico City weather stations, including those aligned with Servicio Meteorológico Nacional reporting, recorded a daily maximum of exactly 25°C on August 12, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers that limited further warming. This aligns with the city's typical rainy-season August pattern, where highs average near 24°C amid high humidity and afternoon convection, and matches live model consensus from AccuWeather and similar sources projecting 24–26°C. The market's near-certain 25°C outcome reflects traders incorporating these verified measurements over earlier forecast spreads. A realistic challenge would require an official data revision due to station calibration issues or microclimate discrepancies, though such adjustments remain rare after initial quality control.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 12?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 12?
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$22,213 Vol.
$22,213 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$22,213 Vol.
$22,213 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
19°C or below
$493 Vol.
No
20°C
$569 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,086 Vol.
No
22°C
$776 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,978 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,153 Vol.
No
25°C
$4,765 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$4,668 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,948 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,503 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$1,274 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official observations from Mexico City weather stations, including those aligned with Servicio Meteorológico Nacional reporting, recorded a daily maximum of exactly 25°C on August 12, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers that limited further warming. This aligns with the city's typical rainy-season August pattern, where highs average near 24°C amid high humidity and afternoon convection, and matches live model consensus from AccuWeather and similar sources projecting 24–26°C. The market's near-certain 25°C outcome reflects traders incorporating these verified measurements over earlier forecast spreads. A realistic challenge would require an official data revision due to station calibration issues or microclimate discrepancies, though such adjustments remain rare after initial quality control.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 9:04 PM ET
Volume
$22,213End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official observations from Mexico City weather stations, including those aligned with Servicio Meteorológico Nacional reporting, recorded a daily maximum of exactly 25°C on August 12, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers that limited further warming. This aligns with the city's typical rainy-season August pattern, where highs average near 24°C amid high humidity and afternoon convection, and matches live model consensus from AccuWeather and similar sources projecting 24–26°C. The market's near-certain 25°C outcome reflects traders incorporating these verified measurements over earlier forecast spreads. A realistic challenge would require an official data revision due to station calibration issues or microclimate discrepancies, though such adjustments remain rare after initial quality control.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$22,213End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official observations from Mexico City weather stations, including those aligned with Servicio Meteorológico Nacional reporting, recorded a daily maximum of exactly 25°C on August 12, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers that limited further warming. This aligns with the city's typical rainy-season August pattern, where highs average near 24°C amid high humidity and afternoon convection, and matches live model consensus from AccuWeather and similar sources projecting 24–26°C. The market's near-certain 25°C outcome reflects traders incorporating these verified measurements over earlier forecast spreads. A realistic challenge would require an official data revision due to station calibration issues or microclimate discrepancies, though such adjustments remain rare after initial quality control.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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