Current forecast models from meteorological agencies indicate a daytime high in Moscow near 26–27°C on May 17, driven by a warm air mass advected from the south under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers. These conditions limit peak solar heating while allowing brief clearing intervals that could push the maximum slightly higher or hold it at the lower end of the range. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to uncertainty in rainfall timing and cloud persistence, with historical May averages around 18–20°C providing context for the above-normal warmth. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 26°C and 27°C because resolution hinges on the precise hourly maximum recorded by official stations, a threshold sensitive to short-term convective developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on May 17?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 17?
27°C 55.4%
26°C 43.0%
28°C or higher 9.0%
25°C <1%
$34,787 Vol.
$34,787 Vol.
May 17, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
43%
27°C
43%
28°C or higher
10%
27°C 55.4%
26°C 43.0%
28°C or higher 9.0%
25°C <1%
$34,787 Vol.
$34,787 Vol.
May 17, 2026
18°C or below
$1,473 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,641 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,344 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$3,934 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$2,240 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$4,250 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$4,272 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$6,077 Vol.
1%
26°C
$2,881 Vol.
43%
27°C
$3,216 Vol.
43%
28°C or higher
$3,491 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models from meteorological agencies indicate a daytime high in Moscow near 26–27°C on May 17, driven by a warm air mass advected from the south under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers. These conditions limit peak solar heating while allowing brief clearing intervals that could push the maximum slightly higher or hold it at the lower end of the range. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to uncertainty in rainfall timing and cloud persistence, with historical May averages around 18–20°C providing context for the above-normal warmth. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 26°C and 27°C because resolution hinges on the precise hourly maximum recorded by official stations, a threshold sensitive to short-term convective developments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$34,787End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast models from meteorological agencies indicate a daytime high in Moscow near 26–27°C on May 17, driven by a warm air mass advected from the south under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers. These conditions limit peak solar heating while allowing brief clearing intervals that could push the maximum slightly higher or hold it at the lower end of the range. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to uncertainty in rainfall timing and cloud persistence, with historical May averages around 18–20°C providing context for the above-normal warmth. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 26°C and 27°C because resolution hinges on the precise hourly maximum recorded by official stations, a threshold sensitive to short-term convective developments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$34,787End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETCurrent forecast models from meteorological agencies indicate a daytime high in Moscow near 26–27°C on May 17, driven by a warm air mass advected from the south under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers. These conditions limit peak solar heating while allowing brief clearing intervals that could push the maximum slightly higher or hold it at the lower end of the range. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to uncertainty in rainfall timing and cloud persistence, with historical May averages around 18–20°C providing context for the above-normal warmth. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 26°C and 27°C because resolution hinges on the precise hourly maximum recorded by official stations, a threshold sensitive to short-term convective developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions