Recent ensemble forecasts from major global weather models have clustered Moscow's expected maximum temperature for May 18 between 27 °C and 29 °C, driving the closely matched market-implied odds with 29 °C leading at 33 percent. This range reflects a warm anomaly well above the mid-May climatological average of roughly 18–20 °C at VDNKh station, supported by southerly flow advecting warmer air masses and limited cloud cover that favors daytime heating. Official guidance from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and European model runs show modest uncertainty in exact peak values due to subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow 27–29 °C window most heavily while assigning lower probability to extremes outside this consensus band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on May 18?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 18?
29°C 35%
28°C 30%
30°C 19%
27°C 14%
NEW
$11,170 Vol.
NEW
$11,170 Vol.
May 18, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
4%
27°C
14%
28°C
30%
29°C
35%
30°C
19%
31°C or higher
3%
29°C 35%
28°C 30%
30°C 19%
27°C 14%
NEW
$11,170 Vol.
NEW
$11,170 Vol.
May 18, 2026
21°C or below
$870 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$533 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,146 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$2,694 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,974 Vol.
1%
26°C
$637 Vol.
4%
27°C
$498 Vol.
14%
28°C
$689 Vol.
30%
29°C
$518 Vol.
35%
30°C
$405 Vol.
19%
31°C or higher
$1,204 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from major global weather models have clustered Moscow's expected maximum temperature for May 18 between 27 °C and 29 °C, driving the closely matched market-implied odds with 29 °C leading at 33 percent. This range reflects a warm anomaly well above the mid-May climatological average of roughly 18–20 °C at VDNKh station, supported by southerly flow advecting warmer air masses and limited cloud cover that favors daytime heating. Official guidance from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and European model runs show modest uncertainty in exact peak values due to subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow 27–29 °C window most heavily while assigning lower probability to extremes outside this consensus band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$11,170End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from major global weather models have clustered Moscow's expected maximum temperature for May 18 between 27 °C and 29 °C, driving the closely matched market-implied odds with 29 °C leading at 33 percent. This range reflects a warm anomaly well above the mid-May climatological average of roughly 18–20 °C at VDNKh station, supported by southerly flow advecting warmer air masses and limited cloud cover that favors daytime heating. Official guidance from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and European model runs show modest uncertainty in exact peak values due to subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow 27–29 °C window most heavily while assigning lower probability to extremes outside this consensus band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$11,170End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from major global weather models have clustered Moscow's expected maximum temperature for May 18 between 27 °C and 29 °C, driving the closely matched market-implied odds with 29 °C leading at 33 percent. This range reflects a warm anomaly well above the mid-May climatological average of roughly 18–20 °C at VDNKh station, supported by southerly flow advecting warmer air masses and limited cloud cover that favors daytime heating. Official guidance from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and European model runs show modest uncertainty in exact peak values due to subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow 27–29 °C window most heavily while assigning lower probability to extremes outside this consensus band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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