Official observations from Brazil’s Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia confirmed a daily maximum temperature at or below 20°C in São Paulo on May 15, anchoring the market-implied odds at essentially 100% for that outcome. A persistent polar air mass, reinforced by strong southerly winds and extensive cloud cover with relative humidity near 90%, suppressed daytime heating and produced stable atmospheric conditions that kept readings well below the month’s climatological average of roughly 23°C. High-resolution models from INMET and CPTEC converged on subdued highs around 19°C, with only limited clearing possible late in the day. While station-to-station micro-variations or post-processing revisions could theoretically nudge the final recorded value, the broad observational consensus across automated networks leaves little realistic scope for a higher outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 15?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 15?
20°C or below 100.0%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$68,505 Vol.
$68,505 Vol.
May 15, 2026
20°C or below
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
20°C or below 100.0%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$68,505 Vol.
$68,505 Vol.
May 15, 2026
20°C or below
$18,820 Vol.
Yes
21°C
$6,696 Vol.
No
22°C
$7,367 Vol.
No
23°C
$6,674 Vol.
No
24°C
$6,943 Vol.
No
25°C
$8,183 Vol.
No
26°C
$5,085 Vol.
No
27°C
$3,005 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,803 Vol.
No
29°C
$854 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$2,074 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Brazil’s Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia confirmed a daily maximum temperature at or below 20°C in São Paulo on May 15, anchoring the market-implied odds at essentially 100% for that outcome. A persistent polar air mass, reinforced by strong southerly winds and extensive cloud cover with relative humidity near 90%, suppressed daytime heating and produced stable atmospheric conditions that kept readings well below the month’s climatological average of roughly 23°C. High-resolution models from INMET and CPTEC converged on subdued highs around 19°C, with only limited clearing possible late in the day. While station-to-station micro-variations or post-processing revisions could theoretically nudge the final recorded value, the broad observational consensus across automated networks leaves little realistic scope for a higher outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$68,505End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Brazil’s Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia confirmed a daily maximum temperature at or below 20°C in São Paulo on May 15, anchoring the market-implied odds at essentially 100% for that outcome. A persistent polar air mass, reinforced by strong southerly winds and extensive cloud cover with relative humidity near 90%, suppressed daytime heating and produced stable atmospheric conditions that kept readings well below the month’s climatological average of roughly 23°C. High-resolution models from INMET and CPTEC converged on subdued highs around 19°C, with only limited clearing possible late in the day. While station-to-station micro-variations or post-processing revisions could theoretically nudge the final recorded value, the broad observational consensus across automated networks leaves little realistic scope for a higher outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$68,505End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official observations from Brazil’s Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia confirmed a daily maximum temperature at or below 20°C in São Paulo on May 15, anchoring the market-implied odds at essentially 100% for that outcome. A persistent polar air mass, reinforced by strong southerly winds and extensive cloud cover with relative humidity near 90%, suppressed daytime heating and produced stable atmospheric conditions that kept readings well below the month’s climatological average of roughly 23°C. High-resolution models from INMET and CPTEC converged on subdued highs around 19°C, with only limited clearing possible late in the day. While station-to-station micro-variations or post-processing revisions could theoretically nudge the final recorded value, the broad observational consensus across automated networks leaves little realistic scope for a higher outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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