Recent weather model runs from global forecasting centers show Sao Paulo's May 18 maximum temperature most likely settling near 20–21 °C under typical autumn conditions, with a weak cold front and increased cloud cover limiting daytime heating. This keeps the market tightly clustered around 19–21 °C, as modest shifts in southerly advection or boundary-layer moisture could easily swing the peak by a degree in either direction. Historical May maxima average 22–23 °C, but current upper-level cooling and light winds favor the slightly lower range now priced by traders. Updated runs from the next model cycle remain the key near-term catalyst for any re-pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 18?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 18?
20°C 28%
19°C 26%
21°C 22%
22°C 9%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
2%
18°C
7%
19°C
26%
20°C
28%
21°C
22%
22°C
9%
23°C
2%
24°C
2%
25°C or higher
1%
20°C 28%
19°C 26%
21°C 22%
22°C 9%
NEW
NEW
May 18, 2026
15°C or below
$160 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$107 Vol.
1%
17°C
$28 Vol.
2%
18°C
$22 Vol.
7%
19°C
$24 Vol.
26%
20°C
$59 Vol.
28%
21°C
$41 Vol.
22%
22°C
$59 Vol.
9%
23°C
$56 Vol.
2%
24°C
$190 Vol.
2%
25°C or higher
$391 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weather model runs from global forecasting centers show Sao Paulo's May 18 maximum temperature most likely settling near 20–21 °C under typical autumn conditions, with a weak cold front and increased cloud cover limiting daytime heating. This keeps the market tightly clustered around 19–21 °C, as modest shifts in southerly advection or boundary-layer moisture could easily swing the peak by a degree in either direction. Historical May maxima average 22–23 °C, but current upper-level cooling and light winds favor the slightly lower range now priced by traders. Updated runs from the next model cycle remain the key near-term catalyst for any re-pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$1,136End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weather model runs from global forecasting centers show Sao Paulo's May 18 maximum temperature most likely settling near 20–21 °C under typical autumn conditions, with a weak cold front and increased cloud cover limiting daytime heating. This keeps the market tightly clustered around 19–21 °C, as modest shifts in southerly advection or boundary-layer moisture could easily swing the peak by a degree in either direction. Historical May maxima average 22–23 °C, but current upper-level cooling and light winds favor the slightly lower range now priced by traders. Updated runs from the next model cycle remain the key near-term catalyst for any re-pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,136End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRRecent weather model runs from global forecasting centers show Sao Paulo's May 18 maximum temperature most likely settling near 20–21 °C under typical autumn conditions, with a weak cold front and increased cloud cover limiting daytime heating. This keeps the market tightly clustered around 19–21 °C, as modest shifts in southerly advection or boundary-layer moisture could easily swing the peak by a degree in either direction. Historical May maxima average 22–23 °C, but current upper-level cooling and light winds favor the slightly lower range now priced by traders. Updated runs from the next model cycle remain the key near-term catalyst for any re-pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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