A cold front advancing across southern Brazil, accompanied by a polar air mass, is the main driver keeping trader-implied odds clustered around 17–19 °C for São Paulo’s May 19 maximum. Official guidance from Brazil’s INMET and global models such as ECMWF show the front arriving near May 17–18, delivering widespread rain and suppressing daytime heating below the seasonal average of roughly 22–24 °C. Ensemble forecasts currently place the daily high most often in the 17–19 °C range, with modest spread arising from differences in frontal timing and post-frontal clearing. Updated short-range model runs and INMET afternoon briefings over the next 48 hours will be the key data releases that could shift probabilities among the tightly contested leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 19?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 19?
18°C 33%
17°C 26%
19°C 17%
16°C 12%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
5%
16°C
12%
17°C
25%
18°C
28%
19°C
17%
20°C
5%
21°C or higher
3%
18°C 33%
17°C 26%
19°C 17%
16°C 12%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
11°C or below
$326 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$146 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$238 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$365 Vol.
1%
15°C
$125 Vol.
5%
16°C
$62 Vol.
12%
17°C
$160 Vol.
25%
18°C
$71 Vol.
28%
19°C
$118 Vol.
17%
20°C
$216 Vol.
5%
21°C or higher
$442 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A cold front advancing across southern Brazil, accompanied by a polar air mass, is the main driver keeping trader-implied odds clustered around 17–19 °C for São Paulo’s May 19 maximum. Official guidance from Brazil’s INMET and global models such as ECMWF show the front arriving near May 17–18, delivering widespread rain and suppressing daytime heating below the seasonal average of roughly 22–24 °C. Ensemble forecasts currently place the daily high most often in the 17–19 °C range, with modest spread arising from differences in frontal timing and post-frontal clearing. Updated short-range model runs and INMET afternoon briefings over the next 48 hours will be the key data releases that could shift probabilities among the tightly contested leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$2,249End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A cold front advancing across southern Brazil, accompanied by a polar air mass, is the main driver keeping trader-implied odds clustered around 17–19 °C for São Paulo’s May 19 maximum. Official guidance from Brazil’s INMET and global models such as ECMWF show the front arriving near May 17–18, delivering widespread rain and suppressing daytime heating below the seasonal average of roughly 22–24 °C. Ensemble forecasts currently place the daily high most often in the 17–19 °C range, with modest spread arising from differences in frontal timing and post-frontal clearing. Updated short-range model runs and INMET afternoon briefings over the next 48 hours will be the key data releases that could shift probabilities among the tightly contested leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,249End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRA cold front advancing across southern Brazil, accompanied by a polar air mass, is the main driver keeping trader-implied odds clustered around 17–19 °C for São Paulo’s May 19 maximum. Official guidance from Brazil’s INMET and global models such as ECMWF show the front arriving near May 17–18, delivering widespread rain and suppressing daytime heating below the seasonal average of roughly 22–24 °C. Ensemble forecasts currently place the daily high most often in the 17–19 °C range, with modest spread arising from differences in frontal timing and post-frontal clearing. Updated short-range model runs and INMET afternoon briefings over the next 48 hours will be the key data releases that could shift probabilities among the tightly contested leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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