Official observations from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and Sao Paulo's key weather stations, including Congonhas Airport, confirm the highest temperature reached 29°C on May 8, 2026, with maximum readings peaking mid-afternoon under partly cloudy skies and moderate humidity. This verified data, released in INMET's daily bulletin late yesterday, underpins the market's 100% implied probability on 29°C, reflecting trader consensus on the uncontroverted ground truth from calibrated thermometers. Sao Paulo's autumn climatology supports such mild highs, averaging 24-26°C in May, with no anomalous heat drivers like El Niño residuals. Realistic challenges—such as a late data revision from a peripheral station or quality-control adjustment—remain improbable absent evidence of sensor error, with final archives expected within 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 8?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 8?
29°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$104,497 Vol.
$104,497 Vol.
May 8, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$104,497 Vol.
$104,497 Vol.
May 8, 2026
23°C or below
$2,999 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,428 Vol.
No
25°C
$3,232 Vol.
No
26°C
$14,013 Vol.
No
27°C
$8,486 Vol.
No
28°C
$27,357 Vol.
No
29°C
$8,291 Vol.
Yes
30°C
$9,849 Vol.
No
31°C
$8,261 Vol.
No
32°C
$6,653 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$11,927 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and Sao Paulo's key weather stations, including Congonhas Airport, confirm the highest temperature reached 29°C on May 8, 2026, with maximum readings peaking mid-afternoon under partly cloudy skies and moderate humidity. This verified data, released in INMET's daily bulletin late yesterday, underpins the market's 100% implied probability on 29°C, reflecting trader consensus on the uncontroverted ground truth from calibrated thermometers. Sao Paulo's autumn climatology supports such mild highs, averaging 24-26°C in May, with no anomalous heat drivers like El Niño residuals. Realistic challenges—such as a late data revision from a peripheral station or quality-control adjustment—remain improbable absent evidence of sensor error, with final archives expected within 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 6, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$104,497End Date
May 8, 2026Market Opened
May 6, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and Sao Paulo's key weather stations, including Congonhas Airport, confirm the highest temperature reached 29°C on May 8, 2026, with maximum readings peaking mid-afternoon under partly cloudy skies and moderate humidity. This verified data, released in INMET's daily bulletin late yesterday, underpins the market's 100% implied probability on 29°C, reflecting trader consensus on the uncontroverted ground truth from calibrated thermometers. Sao Paulo's autumn climatology supports such mild highs, averaging 24-26°C in May, with no anomalous heat drivers like El Niño residuals. Realistic challenges—such as a late data revision from a peripheral station or quality-control adjustment—remain improbable absent evidence of sensor error, with final archives expected within 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$104,497End Date
May 8, 2026Market Opened
May 6, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Official observations from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and Sao Paulo's key weather stations, including Congonhas Airport, confirm the highest temperature reached 29°C on May 8, 2026, with maximum readings peaking mid-afternoon under partly cloudy skies and moderate humidity. This verified data, released in INMET's daily bulletin late yesterday, underpins the market's 100% implied probability on 29°C, reflecting trader consensus on the uncontroverted ground truth from calibrated thermometers. Sao Paulo's autumn climatology supports such mild highs, averaging 24-26°C in May, with no anomalous heat drivers like El Niño residuals. Realistic challenges—such as a late data revision from a peripheral station or quality-control adjustment—remain improbable absent evidence of sensor error, with final archives expected within 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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