National Weather Service model consensus and observational data from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport have converged on a daily high of 58–59 °F for May 16, underpinning the market’s near-certain pricing for that outcome. This reflects typical late-spring marine influence along the Pacific Northwest coast, where onshore flow and cloud cover often cap temperatures well below seasonal averages around 67 °F. Official forecasts showed minimal deviation across ensemble runs, with no significant warm-air advection or clear-sky development to push readings higher. A sudden shift in the sea-breeze front or under-forecasted solar heating could still alter final readings, though such changes remain unlikely given the stability of recent guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seattle on May 16?
Highest temperature in Seattle on May 16?
58-59°F 100.0%
47°F or below <1%
48-49°F <1%
50-51°F <1%
$93,507 Vol.
$93,507 Vol.
May 16, 2026
47°F or below
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
Yes
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66°F or higher
No
58-59°F 100.0%
47°F or below <1%
48-49°F <1%
50-51°F <1%
$93,507 Vol.
$93,507 Vol.
May 16, 2026
47°F or below
$13,297 Vol.
No
48-49°F
$15,486 Vol.
No
50-51°F
$9,463 Vol.
No
52-53°F
$6,344 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$5,207 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$6,878 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$8,965 Vol.
Yes
60-61°F
$14,429 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$9,448 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$1,754 Vol.
No
66°F or higher
$2,236 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service model consensus and observational data from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport have converged on a daily high of 58–59 °F for May 16, underpinning the market’s near-certain pricing for that outcome. This reflects typical late-spring marine influence along the Pacific Northwest coast, where onshore flow and cloud cover often cap temperatures well below seasonal averages around 67 °F. Official forecasts showed minimal deviation across ensemble runs, with no significant warm-air advection or clear-sky development to push readings higher. A sudden shift in the sea-breeze front or under-forecasted solar heating could still alter final readings, though such changes remain unlikely given the stability of recent guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$93,507End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service model consensus and observational data from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport have converged on a daily high of 58–59 °F for May 16, underpinning the market’s near-certain pricing for that outcome. This reflects typical late-spring marine influence along the Pacific Northwest coast, where onshore flow and cloud cover often cap temperatures well below seasonal averages around 67 °F. Official forecasts showed minimal deviation across ensemble runs, with no significant warm-air advection or clear-sky development to push readings higher. A sudden shift in the sea-breeze front or under-forecasted solar heating could still alter final readings, though such changes remain unlikely given the stability of recent guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$93,507End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
National Weather Service model consensus and observational data from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport have converged on a daily high of 58–59 °F for May 16, underpinning the market’s near-certain pricing for that outcome. This reflects typical late-spring marine influence along the Pacific Northwest coast, where onshore flow and cloud cover often cap temperatures well below seasonal averages around 67 °F. Official forecasts showed minimal deviation across ensemble runs, with no significant warm-air advection or clear-sky development to push readings higher. A sudden shift in the sea-breeze front or under-forecasted solar heating could still alter final readings, though such changes remain unlikely given the stability of recent guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions