Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs project daytime highs in the mid-60s Fahrenheit for Seattle on May 19, aligning with NOAA’s above-normal temperature outlook for western Washington through the month. This positioning stems from persistent offshore flow and reduced marine layer influence that has sustained warmth well above the 67°F May climatological average. Traders have assigned 96.5% implied probability to 58°F or higher because current guidance shows little room for significant cooling before the date. A rapid onshore shift or stronger low-pressure system could lower readings into the upper 50s, but such a change remains unlikely within the short forecast window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seattle on May 19?
Highest temperature in Seattle on May 19?
58°F or higher 96.2%
56-57°F 2.1%
54-55°F 1.0%
52-53°F <1%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
39°F or below
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
2%
58°F or higher
96%
58°F or higher 96.2%
56-57°F 2.1%
54-55°F 1.0%
52-53°F <1%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
39°F or below
$690 Vol.
<1%
40-41°F
$603 Vol.
<1%
42-43°F
$603 Vol.
<1%
44-45°F
$603 Vol.
<1%
46-47°F
$603 Vol.
<1%
48-49°F
$603 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$541 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$818 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$188 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$23 Vol.
2%
58°F or higher
$258 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs project daytime highs in the mid-60s Fahrenheit for Seattle on May 19, aligning with NOAA’s above-normal temperature outlook for western Washington through the month. This positioning stems from persistent offshore flow and reduced marine layer influence that has sustained warmth well above the 67°F May climatological average. Traders have assigned 96.5% implied probability to 58°F or higher because current guidance shows little room for significant cooling before the date. A rapid onshore shift or stronger low-pressure system could lower readings into the upper 50s, but such a change remains unlikely within the short forecast window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$5,533End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs project daytime highs in the mid-60s Fahrenheit for Seattle on May 19, aligning with NOAA’s above-normal temperature outlook for western Washington through the month. This positioning stems from persistent offshore flow and reduced marine layer influence that has sustained warmth well above the 67°F May climatological average. Traders have assigned 96.5% implied probability to 58°F or higher because current guidance shows little room for significant cooling before the date. A rapid onshore shift or stronger low-pressure system could lower readings into the upper 50s, but such a change remains unlikely within the short forecast window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,533End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEARecent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs project daytime highs in the mid-60s Fahrenheit for Seattle on May 19, aligning with NOAA’s above-normal temperature outlook for western Washington through the month. This positioning stems from persistent offshore flow and reduced marine layer influence that has sustained warmth well above the 67°F May climatological average. Traders have assigned 96.5% implied probability to 58°F or higher because current guidance shows little room for significant cooling before the date. A rapid onshore shift or stronger low-pressure system could lower readings into the upper 50s, but such a change remains unlikely within the short forecast window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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