Recent official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration align closely on a daily maximum temperature of 25°C in Seoul today, May 17, driving the market’s near-certain consensus at that exact threshold. Mid-May climatological patterns typically feature progressive warming from solar insolation and southerly flow, with current model runs showing minimal deviation around this peak under stable high-pressure conditions. Traders price in this outcome based on real-time observational data and ensemble guidance that places the high squarely at 25°C rather than adjacent buckets. While the probability exceeds 90 percent, a late-day shift in cloud cover, stronger afternoon winds, or slight model bias toward cooler advection could still nudge the official reading one degree lower or higher before final verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on May 17?
Highest temperature in Seoul on May 17?
25°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$225,191 Vol.
$225,191 Vol.
May 17, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C or higher
<1%
25°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$225,191 Vol.
$225,191 Vol.
May 17, 2026
16°C or below
$7,774 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$6,507 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$9,963 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$10,868 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$15,133 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$22,532 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$28,364 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$28,273 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$23,625 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$24,973 Vol.
100%
26°C or higher
$47,705 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration align closely on a daily maximum temperature of 25°C in Seoul today, May 17, driving the market’s near-certain consensus at that exact threshold. Mid-May climatological patterns typically feature progressive warming from solar insolation and southerly flow, with current model runs showing minimal deviation around this peak under stable high-pressure conditions. Traders price in this outcome based on real-time observational data and ensemble guidance that places the high squarely at 25°C rather than adjacent buckets. While the probability exceeds 90 percent, a late-day shift in cloud cover, stronger afternoon winds, or slight model bias toward cooler advection could still nudge the official reading one degree lower or higher before final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$225,191End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration align closely on a daily maximum temperature of 25°C in Seoul today, May 17, driving the market’s near-certain consensus at that exact threshold. Mid-May climatological patterns typically feature progressive warming from solar insolation and southerly flow, with current model runs showing minimal deviation around this peak under stable high-pressure conditions. Traders price in this outcome based on real-time observational data and ensemble guidance that places the high squarely at 25°C rather than adjacent buckets. While the probability exceeds 90 percent, a late-day shift in cloud cover, stronger afternoon winds, or slight model bias toward cooler advection could still nudge the official reading one degree lower or higher before final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$225,191End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIRecent official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration align closely on a daily maximum temperature of 25°C in Seoul today, May 17, driving the market’s near-certain consensus at that exact threshold. Mid-May climatological patterns typically feature progressive warming from solar insolation and southerly flow, with current model runs showing minimal deviation around this peak under stable high-pressure conditions. Traders price in this outcome based on real-time observational data and ensemble guidance that places the high squarely at 25°C rather than adjacent buckets. While the probability exceeds 90 percent, a late-day shift in cloud cover, stronger afternoon winds, or slight model bias toward cooler advection could still nudge the official reading one degree lower or higher before final verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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