Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System now converge on a daily maximum of 27°C for Shanghai on May 17, driven by persistent high-pressure ridging that favors subsidence warming and light southerly flow advecting milder air. This synoptic pattern has produced stable conditions with minimal cloud cover, elevating temperatures modestly above the mid-May climatological normal of roughly 25°C recorded at long-term stations such as Xujiahui Observatory. Traders have priced the 27°C outcome at 100 percent implied probability because final 12-hour model runs and surface observations show no deviation large enough to shift the peak by even one degree. Resolution rests on the official reading at Shanghai Pudong International Airport; only an unexpected increase in boundary-layer moisture or a late wind shift could realistically produce 26°C or 28°C instead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
27°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$130,292 Vol.
$130,292 Vol.
May 17, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$130,292 Vol.
$130,292 Vol.
May 17, 2026
21°C or below
$2,126 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$6,104 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$7,382 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$8,480 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$18,561 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$18,057 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$23,504 Vol.
100%
28°C
$13,605 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$13,904 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$11,963 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$6,838 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System now converge on a daily maximum of 27°C for Shanghai on May 17, driven by persistent high-pressure ridging that favors subsidence warming and light southerly flow advecting milder air. This synoptic pattern has produced stable conditions with minimal cloud cover, elevating temperatures modestly above the mid-May climatological normal of roughly 25°C recorded at long-term stations such as Xujiahui Observatory. Traders have priced the 27°C outcome at 100 percent implied probability because final 12-hour model runs and surface observations show no deviation large enough to shift the peak by even one degree. Resolution rests on the official reading at Shanghai Pudong International Airport; only an unexpected increase in boundary-layer moisture or a late wind shift could realistically produce 26°C or 28°C instead.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$130,292End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System now converge on a daily maximum of 27°C for Shanghai on May 17, driven by persistent high-pressure ridging that favors subsidence warming and light southerly flow advecting milder air. This synoptic pattern has produced stable conditions with minimal cloud cover, elevating temperatures modestly above the mid-May climatological normal of roughly 25°C recorded at long-term stations such as Xujiahui Observatory. Traders have priced the 27°C outcome at 100 percent implied probability because final 12-hour model runs and surface observations show no deviation large enough to shift the peak by even one degree. Resolution rests on the official reading at Shanghai Pudong International Airport; only an unexpected increase in boundary-layer moisture or a late wind shift could realistically produce 26°C or 28°C instead.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$130,292End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDEnsemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System now converge on a daily maximum of 27°C for Shanghai on May 17, driven by persistent high-pressure ridging that favors subsidence warming and light southerly flow advecting milder air. This synoptic pattern has produced stable conditions with minimal cloud cover, elevating temperatures modestly above the mid-May climatological normal of roughly 25°C recorded at long-term stations such as Xujiahui Observatory. Traders have priced the 27°C outcome at 100 percent implied probability because final 12-hour model runs and surface observations show no deviation large enough to shift the peak by even one degree. Resolution rests on the official reading at Shanghai Pudong International Airport; only an unexpected increase in boundary-layer moisture or a late wind shift could realistically produce 26°C or 28°C instead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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