Latest meteorological model runs from sources like the Global Forecast System indicate Shanghai's maximum temperature on May 18 will likely peak near 26–28°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly flow. This positioning explains why traders have concentrated volume on the 27°C outcome at 37.5% implied probability, with 26°C and 28°C closely trailing at 28.5% and 25%. Typical mid-May climatology for the region centers on daily highs of 24–26°C, so current guidance reflects a modest warm anomaly driven by limited daytime heating and no strong frontal passage. Forecasters will issue updated guidance this evening, and any revision in the 0–24 hour window could quickly shift market-implied odds among these tightly clustered outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 18?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 18?
27°C 39%
26°C 28%
28°C 26%
29°C 6%
NEW
$26,000 Vol.
NEW
$26,000 Vol.
May 18, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
2%
25°C
6%
26°C
28%
27°C
39%
28°C
26%
29°C
6%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 39%
26°C 28%
28°C 26%
29°C 6%
NEW
$26,000 Vol.
NEW
$26,000 Vol.
May 18, 2026
21°C or below
$869 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,052 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$3,788 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$3,293 Vol.
2%
25°C
$3,026 Vol.
6%
26°C
$2,823 Vol.
28%
27°C
$1,893 Vol.
39%
28°C
$1,638 Vol.
26%
29°C
$2,477 Vol.
6%
30°C
$2,205 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$3,069 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest meteorological model runs from sources like the Global Forecast System indicate Shanghai's maximum temperature on May 18 will likely peak near 26–28°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly flow. This positioning explains why traders have concentrated volume on the 27°C outcome at 37.5% implied probability, with 26°C and 28°C closely trailing at 28.5% and 25%. Typical mid-May climatology for the region centers on daily highs of 24–26°C, so current guidance reflects a modest warm anomaly driven by limited daytime heating and no strong frontal passage. Forecasters will issue updated guidance this evening, and any revision in the 0–24 hour window could quickly shift market-implied odds among these tightly clustered outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$26,000End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest meteorological model runs from sources like the Global Forecast System indicate Shanghai's maximum temperature on May 18 will likely peak near 26–28°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly flow. This positioning explains why traders have concentrated volume on the 27°C outcome at 37.5% implied probability, with 26°C and 28°C closely trailing at 28.5% and 25%. Typical mid-May climatology for the region centers on daily highs of 24–26°C, so current guidance reflects a modest warm anomaly driven by limited daytime heating and no strong frontal passage. Forecasters will issue updated guidance this evening, and any revision in the 0–24 hour window could quickly shift market-implied odds among these tightly clustered outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$26,000End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDLatest meteorological model runs from sources like the Global Forecast System indicate Shanghai's maximum temperature on May 18 will likely peak near 26–28°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly flow. This positioning explains why traders have concentrated volume on the 27°C outcome at 37.5% implied probability, with 26°C and 28°C closely trailing at 28.5% and 25%. Typical mid-May climatology for the region centers on daily highs of 24–26°C, so current guidance reflects a modest warm anomaly driven by limited daytime heating and no strong frontal passage. Forecasters will issue updated guidance this evening, and any revision in the 0–24 hour window could quickly shift market-implied odds among these tightly clustered outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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