NEA's latest 4-day forecast projects a 34°C daily maximum for May 14 amid inter-monsoon conditions with afternoon thundery showers, yet trader consensus favors 32°C at 54% implied probability for Changi Airport—the market's resolution station—reflecting historical patterns where coastal sea breezes and shower-induced cloud cover often cap peaks below inland highs. Recent fortnightly outlook anticipates 33–35°C on most early May days with occasional exceedances, driven by light variable winds and above-average rainfall from Sumatra squalls, but observed late-April peaks of 35.5°C occurred inland while Changi moderated lower. Model uncertainty persists around shower timing and intensity, with updated advisories expected later today potentially shifting odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Singapore on May 14?
Highest temperature in Singapore on May 14?
32°C 53%
33°C 19%
31°C 15%
30°C 4.5%
$26,541 Vol.
$26,541 Vol.
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
5%
31°C
15%
32°C
53%
33°C
19%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
1%
32°C 53%
33°C 19%
31°C 15%
30°C 4.5%
$26,541 Vol.
$26,541 Vol.
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
5%
31°C
15%
32°C
53%
33°C
19%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Singapore Changi Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Singapore Changi Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...NEA's latest 4-day forecast projects a 34°C daily maximum for May 14 amid inter-monsoon conditions with afternoon thundery showers, yet trader consensus favors 32°C at 54% implied probability for Changi Airport—the market's resolution station—reflecting historical patterns where coastal sea breezes and shower-induced cloud cover often cap peaks below inland highs. Recent fortnightly outlook anticipates 33–35°C on most early May days with occasional exceedances, driven by light variable winds and above-average rainfall from Sumatra squalls, but observed late-April peaks of 35.5°C occurred inland while Changi moderated lower. Model uncertainty persists around shower timing and intensity, with updated advisories expected later today potentially shifting odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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