Current forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration and regional models point to a daily maximum near 31°C in Taipei on May 17, supported by light easterly flow, limited cloud cover, and typical early-season conditions ahead of the Meiyu front. This consensus drives the market’s near-100% implied probability on the 31°C outcome, reflecting real-time observational trends and ensemble agreement that suppress significant deviation. Historical May averages around 28–30°C provide context, though persistent humidity and frontal influences can moderate peaks. Updated CWA briefings and afternoon station readings from Taipei Songshan Airport remain the key resolution inputs, with any unexpected convective development the primary scenario that could shift the final high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Taipei on May 17?
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$109,988 Vol.
$109,988 Vol.
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
100%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$109,988 Vol.
$109,988 Vol.
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
100%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSCurrent forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration and regional models point to a daily maximum near 31°C in Taipei on May 17, supported by light easterly flow, limited cloud cover, and typical early-season conditions ahead of the Meiyu front. This consensus drives the market’s near-100% implied probability on the 31°C outcome, reflecting real-time observational trends and ensemble agreement that suppress significant deviation. Historical May averages around 28–30°C provide context, though persistent humidity and frontal influences can moderate peaks. Updated CWA briefings and afternoon station readings from Taipei Songshan Airport remain the key resolution inputs, with any unexpected convective development the primary scenario that could shift the final high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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