Recent forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service and global model ensembles highlight a building high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean that is driving intense daytime heating and minimal cloud cover across the Tel Aviv region on May 17. Clear skies combined with light winds are expected to limit sea-breeze moderation, allowing surface temperatures to climb well above the typical late-May climatological range of 26–28 °C and push the daily maximum into the 35 °C or higher threshold. This consensus among official guidance and ensemble runs underpins the market’s overwhelming 99.9 % implied probability for that outcome. Only an abrupt increase in marine-layer moisture or unexpected convective development before peak heating could realistically prevent the threshold from being reached.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 17?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 17?
35°C or higher 99.8%
34°C <1%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
$70,368 Vol.
$70,368 Vol.
May 17, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
100%
35°C or higher 99.8%
34°C <1%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
$70,368 Vol.
$70,368 Vol.
May 17, 2026
25°C or below
$10,465 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,768 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$4,321 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,408 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$2,721 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$4,317 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$4,087 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$8,955 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$7,811 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$8,821 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$13,925 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service and global model ensembles highlight a building high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean that is driving intense daytime heating and minimal cloud cover across the Tel Aviv region on May 17. Clear skies combined with light winds are expected to limit sea-breeze moderation, allowing surface temperatures to climb well above the typical late-May climatological range of 26–28 °C and push the daily maximum into the 35 °C or higher threshold. This consensus among official guidance and ensemble runs underpins the market’s overwhelming 99.9 % implied probability for that outcome. Only an abrupt increase in marine-layer moisture or unexpected convective development before peak heating could realistically prevent the threshold from being reached.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$70,368End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service and global model ensembles highlight a building high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean that is driving intense daytime heating and minimal cloud cover across the Tel Aviv region on May 17. Clear skies combined with light winds are expected to limit sea-breeze moderation, allowing surface temperatures to climb well above the typical late-May climatological range of 26–28 °C and push the daily maximum into the 35 °C or higher threshold. This consensus among official guidance and ensemble runs underpins the market’s overwhelming 99.9 % implied probability for that outcome. Only an abrupt increase in marine-layer moisture or unexpected convective development before peak heating could realistically prevent the threshold from being reached.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$70,368End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETRecent forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service and global model ensembles highlight a building high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean that is driving intense daytime heating and minimal cloud cover across the Tel Aviv region on May 17. Clear skies combined with light winds are expected to limit sea-breeze moderation, allowing surface temperatures to climb well above the typical late-May climatological range of 26–28 °C and push the daily maximum into the 35 °C or higher threshold. This consensus among official guidance and ensemble runs underpins the market’s overwhelming 99.9 % implied probability for that outcome. Only an abrupt increase in marine-layer moisture or unexpected convective development before peak heating could realistically prevent the threshold from being reached.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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