Strong daytime heating under a building high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean is driving the market’s near-certain consensus that Tel Aviv’s maximum temperature on May 17 will reach 35 °C or higher. Israel Meteorological Service and global ensemble models show clear skies with minimal cloud cover and reduced sea-breeze moderation through midday, allowing rapid surface warming that exceeds the May climatological average of 26–28 °C. Recent cooler readings of 24–25 °C on May 15–16 have given way to this warming trend, reflected in trader positioning backed by real capital. The dominant outcome could still shift if late-afternoon convective clouds develop, a stronger onshore flow arrives earlier than modeled, or official observations from Ben Gurion International Airport fall short of forecast peaks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 17?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 17?
35°C or higher 99.8%
34°C <1%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
$70,929 Vol.
$70,929 Vol.
May 17, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
100%
35°C or higher 99.8%
34°C <1%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
$70,929 Vol.
$70,929 Vol.
May 17, 2026
25°C or below
$10,465 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,768 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$4,321 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,408 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$2,721 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$4,317 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$4,087 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$8,955 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$7,861 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$8,892 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$14,182 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong daytime heating under a building high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean is driving the market’s near-certain consensus that Tel Aviv’s maximum temperature on May 17 will reach 35 °C or higher. Israel Meteorological Service and global ensemble models show clear skies with minimal cloud cover and reduced sea-breeze moderation through midday, allowing rapid surface warming that exceeds the May climatological average of 26–28 °C. Recent cooler readings of 24–25 °C on May 15–16 have given way to this warming trend, reflected in trader positioning backed by real capital. The dominant outcome could still shift if late-afternoon convective clouds develop, a stronger onshore flow arrives earlier than modeled, or official observations from Ben Gurion International Airport fall short of forecast peaks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$70,929End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong daytime heating under a building high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean is driving the market’s near-certain consensus that Tel Aviv’s maximum temperature on May 17 will reach 35 °C or higher. Israel Meteorological Service and global ensemble models show clear skies with minimal cloud cover and reduced sea-breeze moderation through midday, allowing rapid surface warming that exceeds the May climatological average of 26–28 °C. Recent cooler readings of 24–25 °C on May 15–16 have given way to this warming trend, reflected in trader positioning backed by real capital. The dominant outcome could still shift if late-afternoon convective clouds develop, a stronger onshore flow arrives earlier than modeled, or official observations from Ben Gurion International Airport fall short of forecast peaks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$70,929End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETStrong daytime heating under a building high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean is driving the market’s near-certain consensus that Tel Aviv’s maximum temperature on May 17 will reach 35 °C or higher. Israel Meteorological Service and global ensemble models show clear skies with minimal cloud cover and reduced sea-breeze moderation through midday, allowing rapid surface warming that exceeds the May climatological average of 26–28 °C. Recent cooler readings of 24–25 °C on May 15–16 have given way to this warming trend, reflected in trader positioning backed by real capital. The dominant outcome could still shift if late-afternoon convective clouds develop, a stronger onshore flow arrives earlier than modeled, or official observations from Ben Gurion International Airport fall short of forecast peaks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions