Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on May 17 converge on a maximum of 28°C at the Otemachi station, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting southerly warm advection and intense afternoon solar heating beneath mostly clear skies. This setup aligns with late-spring climatology for the Kanto region, where stable maritime air masses typically yield highs in the mid-to-upper 20s under similar synoptic conditions. Numerical weather prediction models show tight agreement on peak temperatures between 27°C and 29°C, with minimal spread in guidance through the afternoon hours. The market-implied 100% consensus on exactly 28°C reflects traders’ assessment of these stable atmospheric conditions. Unseasonal cloud build-up or a sudden shift in wind direction could still trim the high by a degree or two before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 17?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 17?
28°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$73,090 Vol.
$73,090 Vol.
May 17, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
28°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$73,090 Vol.
$73,090 Vol.
May 17, 2026
20°C or below
$2,924 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,793 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$819 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5,290 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$8,445 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$7,219 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$9,577 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$10,354 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$10,851 Vol.
100%
29°C
$6,433 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$9,401 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on May 17 converge on a maximum of 28°C at the Otemachi station, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting southerly warm advection and intense afternoon solar heating beneath mostly clear skies. This setup aligns with late-spring climatology for the Kanto region, where stable maritime air masses typically yield highs in the mid-to-upper 20s under similar synoptic conditions. Numerical weather prediction models show tight agreement on peak temperatures between 27°C and 29°C, with minimal spread in guidance through the afternoon hours. The market-implied 100% consensus on exactly 28°C reflects traders’ assessment of these stable atmospheric conditions. Unseasonal cloud build-up or a sudden shift in wind direction could still trim the high by a degree or two before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$73,090End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on May 17 converge on a maximum of 28°C at the Otemachi station, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting southerly warm advection and intense afternoon solar heating beneath mostly clear skies. This setup aligns with late-spring climatology for the Kanto region, where stable maritime air masses typically yield highs in the mid-to-upper 20s under similar synoptic conditions. Numerical weather prediction models show tight agreement on peak temperatures between 27°C and 29°C, with minimal spread in guidance through the afternoon hours. The market-implied 100% consensus on exactly 28°C reflects traders’ assessment of these stable atmospheric conditions. Unseasonal cloud build-up or a sudden shift in wind direction could still trim the high by a degree or two before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$73,090End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTJapan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on May 17 converge on a maximum of 28°C at the Otemachi station, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting southerly warm advection and intense afternoon solar heating beneath mostly clear skies. This setup aligns with late-spring climatology for the Kanto region, where stable maritime air masses typically yield highs in the mid-to-upper 20s under similar synoptic conditions. Numerical weather prediction models show tight agreement on peak temperatures between 27°C and 29°C, with minimal spread in guidance through the afternoon hours. The market-implied 100% consensus on exactly 28°C reflects traders’ assessment of these stable atmospheric conditions. Unseasonal cloud build-up or a sudden shift in wind direction could still trim the high by a degree or two before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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