Traders have overwhelmingly positioned around 13°C as Warsaw’s maximum temperature on May 17, driven by the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model runs showing a stable high-pressure system and northerly flow limiting daytime warming. Official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management align with this range, placing the current peak near the historical May average of 15–18 °C but tempered by recent cool advection. Resolution hinges on the final 24-hour maximum recorded at the central Warsaw station, with any unexpected increase in solar radiation or southerly winds the only realistic factors that could push readings to 14 °C or higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 17?
13°C 99.7%
14°C <1%
15°C or higher <1%
5°C or below <1%
$49,669 Vol.
$49,669 Vol.
May 17, 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
100%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
13°C 99.7%
14°C <1%
15°C or higher <1%
5°C or below <1%
$49,669 Vol.
$49,669 Vol.
May 17, 2026
5°C or below
$660 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$979 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$435 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$683 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$1,131 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$4,426 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$10,585 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$4,844 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$9,777 Vol.
100%
14°C
$8,079 Vol.
<1%
15°C or higher
$8,071 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders have overwhelmingly positioned around 13°C as Warsaw’s maximum temperature on May 17, driven by the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model runs showing a stable high-pressure system and northerly flow limiting daytime warming. Official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management align with this range, placing the current peak near the historical May average of 15–18 °C but tempered by recent cool advection. Resolution hinges on the final 24-hour maximum recorded at the central Warsaw station, with any unexpected increase in solar radiation or southerly winds the only realistic factors that could push readings to 14 °C or higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$49,669End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders have overwhelmingly positioned around 13°C as Warsaw’s maximum temperature on May 17, driven by the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model runs showing a stable high-pressure system and northerly flow limiting daytime warming. Official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management align with this range, placing the current peak near the historical May average of 15–18 °C but tempered by recent cool advection. Resolution hinges on the final 24-hour maximum recorded at the central Warsaw station, with any unexpected increase in solar radiation or southerly winds the only realistic factors that could push readings to 14 °C or higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$49,669End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWATraders have overwhelmingly positioned around 13°C as Warsaw’s maximum temperature on May 17, driven by the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model runs showing a stable high-pressure system and northerly flow limiting daytime warming. Official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management align with this range, placing the current peak near the historical May average of 15–18 °C but tempered by recent cool advection. Resolution hinges on the final 24-hour maximum recorded at the central Warsaw station, with any unexpected increase in solar radiation or southerly winds the only realistic factors that could push readings to 14 °C or higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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