Recent model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates mild spring conditions over Warsaw on May 19, with daytime highs likely clustering between 18°C and 20°C depending on cloud cover and any light precipitation from a weak frontal system. These closely matched outcomes stem from subtle differences in forecast timing of warm-air advection versus cooler northerly flow, plus local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C in central districts. Historical May averages near 19°C provide baseline context, while the spread in trader-implied probabilities captures model divergence on exact peak temperature and resolution criteria tied to official meteorological station readings. Updated high-resolution runs and Polish Institute of Meteorology briefings in the next 24 hours could refine the outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 19?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 19?
20°C 24%
19°C 23%
18°C 22%
21°C 10%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
12°C or below
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
8%
18°C
23%
19°C
23%
20°C
24%
21°C
10%
22°C or higher
4%
20°C 24%
19°C 23%
18°C 22%
21°C 10%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
13°C
$15 Vol.
1%
14°C
$5 Vol.
1%
15°C
$5 Vol.
1%
16°C
$32 Vol.
2%
17°C
$7 Vol.
8%
18°C
$18 Vol.
23%
19°C
$25 Vol.
23%
20°C
$60 Vol.
24%
21°C
$19 Vol.
10%
22°C or higher
$7 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates mild spring conditions over Warsaw on May 19, with daytime highs likely clustering between 18°C and 20°C depending on cloud cover and any light precipitation from a weak frontal system. These closely matched outcomes stem from subtle differences in forecast timing of warm-air advection versus cooler northerly flow, plus local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C in central districts. Historical May averages near 19°C provide baseline context, while the spread in trader-implied probabilities captures model divergence on exact peak temperature and resolution criteria tied to official meteorological station readings. Updated high-resolution runs and Polish Institute of Meteorology briefings in the next 24 hours could refine the outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$192End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates mild spring conditions over Warsaw on May 19, with daytime highs likely clustering between 18°C and 20°C depending on cloud cover and any light precipitation from a weak frontal system. These closely matched outcomes stem from subtle differences in forecast timing of warm-air advection versus cooler northerly flow, plus local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C in central districts. Historical May averages near 19°C provide baseline context, while the spread in trader-implied probabilities captures model divergence on exact peak temperature and resolution criteria tied to official meteorological station readings. Updated high-resolution runs and Polish Institute of Meteorology briefings in the next 24 hours could refine the outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$192End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 17, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWARecent model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates mild spring conditions over Warsaw on May 19, with daytime highs likely clustering between 18°C and 20°C depending on cloud cover and any light precipitation from a weak frontal system. These closely matched outcomes stem from subtle differences in forecast timing of warm-air advection versus cooler northerly flow, plus local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C in central districts. Historical May averages near 19°C provide baseline context, while the spread in trader-implied probabilities captures model divergence on exact peak temperature and resolution criteria tied to official meteorological station readings. Updated high-resolution runs and Polish Institute of Meteorology briefings in the next 24 hours could refine the outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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