Numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration, supported by GFS and ECMWF runs, have converged on a daily maximum of 28°C for Wuhan on May 17 under light southerly flow and a modest subtropical ridge that favors daytime warming with partial cloud cover limiting further intensification. This consensus aligns with historical May averages around 27–28°C and current midday observations near 25–26°C, driving the 99.6% market-implied probability for the 28°C outcome. Traders view the skin-in-the-game consensus as robust given the narrow uncertainty range in short-range forecasts. However, rapid shifts in cloud cover, localized wind patterns, or minor adjustments in official airport data from Wuhan Tianhe International Airport could still allow a 29°C reading before the observation window closes tonight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wuhan on May 17?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 17?
28°C 99.8%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
29°C <1%
$51,745 Vol.
$51,745 Vol.
May 17, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
28°C 99.8%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
29°C <1%
$51,745 Vol.
$51,745 Vol.
May 17, 2026
24°C or below
$3,314 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$2,402 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$4,976 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$14,144 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$6,981 Vol.
100%
29°C
$3,314 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$3,194 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$3,713 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$6,765 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$1,615 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$1,360 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration, supported by GFS and ECMWF runs, have converged on a daily maximum of 28°C for Wuhan on May 17 under light southerly flow and a modest subtropical ridge that favors daytime warming with partial cloud cover limiting further intensification. This consensus aligns with historical May averages around 27–28°C and current midday observations near 25–26°C, driving the 99.6% market-implied probability for the 28°C outcome. Traders view the skin-in-the-game consensus as robust given the narrow uncertainty range in short-range forecasts. However, rapid shifts in cloud cover, localized wind patterns, or minor adjustments in official airport data from Wuhan Tianhe International Airport could still allow a 29°C reading before the observation window closes tonight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$51,745End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration, supported by GFS and ECMWF runs, have converged on a daily maximum of 28°C for Wuhan on May 17 under light southerly flow and a modest subtropical ridge that favors daytime warming with partial cloud cover limiting further intensification. This consensus aligns with historical May averages around 27–28°C and current midday observations near 25–26°C, driving the 99.6% market-implied probability for the 28°C outcome. Traders view the skin-in-the-game consensus as robust given the narrow uncertainty range in short-range forecasts. However, rapid shifts in cloud cover, localized wind patterns, or minor adjustments in official airport data from Wuhan Tianhe International Airport could still allow a 29°C reading before the observation window closes tonight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$51,745End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHNumerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration, supported by GFS and ECMWF runs, have converged on a daily maximum of 28°C for Wuhan on May 17 under light southerly flow and a modest subtropical ridge that favors daytime warming with partial cloud cover limiting further intensification. This consensus aligns with historical May averages around 27–28°C and current midday observations near 25–26°C, driving the 99.6% market-implied probability for the 28°C outcome. Traders view the skin-in-the-game consensus as robust given the narrow uncertainty range in short-range forecasts. However, rapid shifts in cloud cover, localized wind patterns, or minor adjustments in official airport data from Wuhan Tianhe International Airport could still allow a 29°C reading before the observation window closes tonight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions