Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 6 at 24.5% and 4 at 20.5% leading, mirrors the USGS global earthquake catalog's historical baseline of 10-20 magnitude 5.5+ events per week, adjusted for a quiet start to the May 11-17 window—zero confirmed through May 13 amid subdued background seismicity along major subduction zones and mid-ocean ridges. Closely bunched mid-range odds reflect Poisson-process variability inherent to tectonic strain release, where no ongoing aftershock sequences, volcanic unrest, or fault-line swarms signal deviations; >9 at 18% accounts for tail-risk bursts, while ≤3 at 6.3% prices persistent quiescence. USGS real-time monitoring will track any emerging clusters through week's end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
4 26%
6 25%
7 24%
>9 18%
$19,131 Vol.
$19,131 Vol.
May 17, 2026
≤3
6%
4
19%
5
12%
6
25%
7
24%
8
14%
9
15%
>9
18%
4 26%
6 25%
7 24%
>9 18%
$19,131 Vol.
$19,131 Vol.
May 17, 2026
≤3
$5,664 Vol.
6%
4
$808 Vol.
19%
5
$4,451 Vol.
12%
6
$499 Vol.
25%
7
$314 Vol.
24%
8
$362 Vol.
14%
9
$359 Vol.
15%
>9
$6,673 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 6 at 24.5% and 4 at 20.5% leading, mirrors the USGS global earthquake catalog's historical baseline of 10-20 magnitude 5.5+ events per week, adjusted for a quiet start to the May 11-17 window—zero confirmed through May 13 amid subdued background seismicity along major subduction zones and mid-ocean ridges. Closely bunched mid-range odds reflect Poisson-process variability inherent to tectonic strain release, where no ongoing aftershock sequences, volcanic unrest, or fault-line swarms signal deviations; >9 at 18% accounts for tail-risk bursts, while ≤3 at 6.3% prices persistent quiescence. USGS real-time monitoring will track any emerging clusters through week's end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$19,131End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 6 at 24.5% and 4 at 20.5% leading, mirrors the USGS global earthquake catalog's historical baseline of 10-20 magnitude 5.5+ events per week, adjusted for a quiet start to the May 11-17 window—zero confirmed through May 13 amid subdued background seismicity along major subduction zones and mid-ocean ridges. Closely bunched mid-range odds reflect Poisson-process variability inherent to tectonic strain release, where no ongoing aftershock sequences, volcanic unrest, or fault-line swarms signal deviations; >9 at 18% accounts for tail-risk bursts, while ≤3 at 6.3% prices persistent quiescence. USGS real-time monitoring will track any emerging clusters through week's end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$19,131End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 6 at 24.5% and 4 at 20.5% leading, mirrors the USGS global earthquake catalog's historical baseline of 10-20 magnitude 5.5+ events per week, adjusted for a quiet start to the May 11-17 window—zero confirmed through May 13 amid subdued background seismicity along major subduction zones and mid-ocean ridges. Closely bunched mid-range odds reflect Poisson-process variability inherent to tectonic strain release, where no ongoing aftershock sequences, volcanic unrest, or fault-line swarms signal deviations; >9 at 18% accounts for tail-risk bursts, while ≤3 at 6.3% prices persistent quiescence. USGS real-time monitoring will track any emerging clusters through week's end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions