Persistent US-Iran tensions and associated naval restrictions continue to suppress commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 20-39 ship range as the market-implied consensus for the week of May 11. Ongoing security risks, selective transit approvals limited largely to vessels from select nations, and reports of attacks on tankers have kept daily crossings in the low single digits, well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 130 vessels per day. Recent diplomatic efforts, including limited clearances for Indian and Chinese-flagged ships, have produced only modest increases in throughput without restoring normal flows. With resolution approaching and no broad de-escalation confirmed, trader capital reflects the expectation that cumulative weekly transits will remain constrained by these geopolitical and operational barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
20-39 65%
40-59 26%
60-79 4.9%
<20 3.1%
$80,326 Vol.
$80,326 Vol.
May 17, 2026
<20
3%
20-39
65%
40-59
26%
60-79
5%
80+
2%
20-39 65%
40-59 26%
60-79 4.9%
<20 3.1%
$80,326 Vol.
$80,326 Vol.
May 17, 2026
<20
$28,367 Vol.
3%
20-39
$13,468 Vol.
65%
40-59
$14,627 Vol.
26%
60-79
$12,115 Vol.
5%
80+
$11,750 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent US-Iran tensions and associated naval restrictions continue to suppress commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 20-39 ship range as the market-implied consensus for the week of May 11. Ongoing security risks, selective transit approvals limited largely to vessels from select nations, and reports of attacks on tankers have kept daily crossings in the low single digits, well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 130 vessels per day. Recent diplomatic efforts, including limited clearances for Indian and Chinese-flagged ships, have produced only modest increases in throughput without restoring normal flows. With resolution approaching and no broad de-escalation confirmed, trader capital reflects the expectation that cumulative weekly transits will remain constrained by these geopolitical and operational barriers.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Volume
$80,326End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent US-Iran tensions and associated naval restrictions continue to suppress commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 20-39 ship range as the market-implied consensus for the week of May 11. Ongoing security risks, selective transit approvals limited largely to vessels from select nations, and reports of attacks on tankers have kept daily crossings in the low single digits, well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 130 vessels per day. Recent diplomatic efforts, including limited clearances for Indian and Chinese-flagged ships, have produced only modest increases in throughput without restoring normal flows. With resolution approaching and no broad de-escalation confirmed, trader capital reflects the expectation that cumulative weekly transits will remain constrained by these geopolitical and operational barriers.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$80,326End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent US-Iran tensions and associated naval restrictions continue to suppress commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 20-39 ship range as the market-implied consensus for the week of May 11. Ongoing security risks, selective transit approvals limited largely to vessels from select nations, and reports of attacks on tankers have kept daily crossings in the low single digits, well below the pre-conflict average of roughly 130 vessels per day. Recent diplomatic efforts, including limited clearances for Indian and Chinese-flagged ships, have produced only modest increases in throughput without restoring normal flows. With resolution approaching and no broad de-escalation confirmed, trader capital reflects the expectation that cumulative weekly transits will remain constrained by these geopolitical and operational barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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