Iran’s insistence on retaining the sovereign right to uranium enrichment has remained a central sticking point in ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, with Tehran repeatedly describing any permanent halt as non-negotiable. Recent rounds of indirect talks, including proposals for temporary moratoriums of five to twelve years or regional consortium arrangements, have failed to bridge the gap between Washington’s demands for verifiable restrictions and Iran’s counteroffers that preserve domestic enrichment capacity. Official statements from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and nuclear officials underscore this red line, while US positions continue to emphasize limits or elimination of the program as a condition for sanctions relief. With the June 30 deadline approaching amid stalled progress and no agreement on core terms, traders price an 80 percent probability that Iran will not commit to ending enrichment by that date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
$1,383,187 Vol.
$1,383,187 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$1,383,187 Vol.
$1,383,187 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s insistence on retaining the sovereign right to uranium enrichment has remained a central sticking point in ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, with Tehran repeatedly describing any permanent halt as non-negotiable. Recent rounds of indirect talks, including proposals for temporary moratoriums of five to twelve years or regional consortium arrangements, have failed to bridge the gap between Washington’s demands for verifiable restrictions and Iran’s counteroffers that preserve domestic enrichment capacity. Official statements from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and nuclear officials underscore this red line, while US positions continue to emphasize limits or elimination of the program as a condition for sanctions relief. With the June 30 deadline approaching amid stalled progress and no agreement on core terms, traders price an 80 percent probability that Iran will not commit to ending enrichment by that date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ET
Volume
$1,383,187End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s insistence on retaining the sovereign right to uranium enrichment has remained a central sticking point in ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, with Tehran repeatedly describing any permanent halt as non-negotiable. Recent rounds of indirect talks, including proposals for temporary moratoriums of five to twelve years or regional consortium arrangements, have failed to bridge the gap between Washington’s demands for verifiable restrictions and Iran’s counteroffers that preserve domestic enrichment capacity. Official statements from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and nuclear officials underscore this red line, while US positions continue to emphasize limits or elimination of the program as a condition for sanctions relief. With the June 30 deadline approaching amid stalled progress and no agreement on core terms, traders price an 80 percent probability that Iran will not commit to ending enrichment by that date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,383,187End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s insistence on retaining the sovereign right to uranium enrichment has remained a central sticking point in ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, with Tehran repeatedly describing any permanent halt as non-negotiable. Recent rounds of indirect talks, including proposals for temporary moratoriums of five to twelve years or regional consortium arrangements, have failed to bridge the gap between Washington’s demands for verifiable restrictions and Iran’s counteroffers that preserve domestic enrichment capacity. Official statements from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and nuclear officials underscore this red line, while US positions continue to emphasize limits or elimination of the program as a condition for sanctions relief. With the June 30 deadline approaching amid stalled progress and no agreement on core terms, traders price an 80 percent probability that Iran will not commit to ending enrichment by that date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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