Iran's longstanding refusal to relinquish its right to uranium enrichment remains the central barrier driving near-certain trader expectations that no agreement to end the activity will materialize by May 31. Recent statements from Iranian officials, including signals that nuclear talks are deferred in favor of addressing the Strait of Hormuz and war termination first, reinforce this position even as indirect negotiations continue through Pakistan. With U.S. demands centered on permanent suspension or zero domestic enrichment, and Tehran treating retention of the program as non-negotiable amid damaged but intact facilities and stockpiles from prior strikes, the tight two-week window leaves little scope for the required concession. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or intensified external pressure could still shift dynamics before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
$629,290 Vol.
$629,290 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$629,290 Vol.
$629,290 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's longstanding refusal to relinquish its right to uranium enrichment remains the central barrier driving near-certain trader expectations that no agreement to end the activity will materialize by May 31. Recent statements from Iranian officials, including signals that nuclear talks are deferred in favor of addressing the Strait of Hormuz and war termination first, reinforce this position even as indirect negotiations continue through Pakistan. With U.S. demands centered on permanent suspension or zero domestic enrichment, and Tehran treating retention of the program as non-negotiable amid damaged but intact facilities and stockpiles from prior strikes, the tight two-week window leaves little scope for the required concession. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or intensified external pressure could still shift dynamics before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
Volume
$629,290End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's longstanding refusal to relinquish its right to uranium enrichment remains the central barrier driving near-certain trader expectations that no agreement to end the activity will materialize by May 31. Recent statements from Iranian officials, including signals that nuclear talks are deferred in favor of addressing the Strait of Hormuz and war termination first, reinforce this position even as indirect negotiations continue through Pakistan. With U.S. demands centered on permanent suspension or zero domestic enrichment, and Tehran treating retention of the program as non-negotiable amid damaged but intact facilities and stockpiles from prior strikes, the tight two-week window leaves little scope for the required concession. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or intensified external pressure could still shift dynamics before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$629,317End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's longstanding refusal to relinquish its right to uranium enrichment remains the central barrier driving near-certain trader expectations that no agreement to end the activity will materialize by May 31. Recent statements from Iranian officials, including signals that nuclear talks are deferred in favor of addressing the Strait of Hormuz and war termination first, reinforce this position even as indirect negotiations continue through Pakistan. With U.S. demands centered on permanent suspension or zero domestic enrichment, and Tehran treating retention of the program as non-negotiable amid damaged but intact facilities and stockpiles from prior strikes, the tight two-week window leaves little scope for the required concession. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or intensified external pressure could still shift dynamics before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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