**Marine Le Pen’s July 2026 appeals court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction in the EU parliamentary assistants case but shortened the ineligibility period, leaving her eligible for the 2027 presidential race while imposing a one-year house detention sentence to be served with an electronic ankle monitor.** She immediately announced both her candidacy and a further appeal to the Cour de Cassation. Under French procedure, that pourvoi suspends execution of the sentence—including any bracelet requirement—until the high court rules. The Cour de Cassation has indicated it will decide before the April 2027 first round, preserving Le Pen’s current freedom of movement. No enforcement steps have occurred since the July verdict, and procedural timelines plus possible sentence adjustments make imposition of the monitor before the election unlikely. Traders therefore assign an 89.5% probability that the ankle monitor will not be required beforehand, reflecting the suspended status and the ongoing final appeal.