Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a 25°C minimum temperature on May 15, 2026, driving the near-certain trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for that exact outcome. In mid-May subtropical conditions, overnight lows typically range 24–27°C beneath a persistent high-pressure ridge from the South China Sea, which limits radiative cooling and maintains stable boundary-layer temperatures. This verified station reading aligns with historical climatology and eliminates forecast uncertainty, as resolution relies on precise observatory data rather than models. Only an improbable pre-dawn clearing of skies combined with calm winds could have produced a dip to 24°C or lower, scenarios unsupported by the observed atmospheric setup.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
25°C 99.9%
18°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
26°C <1%
$63,971 Vol.
$63,971 Vol.
May 15, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.9%
18°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
26°C <1%
$63,971 Vol.
$63,971 Vol.
May 15, 2026
18°C or below
$2,541 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,325 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,408 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,288 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$3,899 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5,193 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$12,287 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$8,673 Vol.
100%
26°C
$12,015 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$8,229 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$4,112 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a 25°C minimum temperature on May 15, 2026, driving the near-certain trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for that exact outcome. In mid-May subtropical conditions, overnight lows typically range 24–27°C beneath a persistent high-pressure ridge from the South China Sea, which limits radiative cooling and maintains stable boundary-layer temperatures. This verified station reading aligns with historical climatology and eliminates forecast uncertainty, as resolution relies on precise observatory data rather than models. Only an improbable pre-dawn clearing of skies combined with calm winds could have produced a dip to 24°C or lower, scenarios unsupported by the observed atmospheric setup.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$63,971End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a 25°C minimum temperature on May 15, 2026, driving the near-certain trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for that exact outcome. In mid-May subtropical conditions, overnight lows typically range 24–27°C beneath a persistent high-pressure ridge from the South China Sea, which limits radiative cooling and maintains stable boundary-layer temperatures. This verified station reading aligns with historical climatology and eliminates forecast uncertainty, as resolution relies on precise observatory data rather than models. Only an improbable pre-dawn clearing of skies combined with calm winds could have produced a dip to 24°C or lower, scenarios unsupported by the observed atmospheric setup.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$63,971End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a 25°C minimum temperature on May 15, 2026, driving the near-certain trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for that exact outcome. In mid-May subtropical conditions, overnight lows typically range 24–27°C beneath a persistent high-pressure ridge from the South China Sea, which limits radiative cooling and maintains stable boundary-layer temperatures. This verified station reading aligns with historical climatology and eliminates forecast uncertainty, as resolution relies on precise observatory data rather than models. Only an improbable pre-dawn clearing of skies combined with calm winds could have produced a dip to 24°C or lower, scenarios unsupported by the observed atmospheric setup.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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