Latest ensemble forecasts from European models indicate a cooling shift for Paris overnight on September 15–16, with northwest winds and increased cloud cover limiting radiative cooling after peak daytime highs near 30°C. This setup favors a minimum temperature clustered around 13–14°C, aligning with market-implied odds of 39.5% and 37% respectively. Differentiation between 12°C and 14°C outcomes hinges on subtle factors such as exact wind speeds, boundary-layer moisture, and any timing shifts in a weak frontal passage, which could enhance or suppress overnight lows by 1–2°C. Historical mid-September averages near 11.5°C provide context, yet current patterns reflect a warmer baseline. Updated model runs and Météo-France guidance over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 16?
12°C 38%
13°C 37%
11°C or below 34%
15°C 32%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
11°C or below
34%
12°C
38%
13°C
37%
14°C
27%
15°C
32%
16°C
26%
17°C
2%
18°C
2%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C or higher
2%
12°C 38%
13°C 37%
11°C or below 34%
15°C 32%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
34%
12°C
$0 Vol.
38%
13°C
$349 Vol.
37%
14°C
$296 Vol.
27%
15°C
$0 Vol.
32%
16°C
$0 Vol.
26%
17°C
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C
$0 Vol.
2%
19°C
$0 Vol.
2%
20°C
$0 Vol.
2%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from European models indicate a cooling shift for Paris overnight on September 15–16, with northwest winds and increased cloud cover limiting radiative cooling after peak daytime highs near 30°C. This setup favors a minimum temperature clustered around 13–14°C, aligning with market-implied odds of 39.5% and 37% respectively. Differentiation between 12°C and 14°C outcomes hinges on subtle factors such as exact wind speeds, boundary-layer moisture, and any timing shifts in a weak frontal passage, which could enhance or suppress overnight lows by 1–2°C. Historical mid-September averages near 11.5°C provide context, yet current patterns reflect a warmer baseline. Updated model runs and Météo-France guidance over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$645End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from European models indicate a cooling shift for Paris overnight on September 15–16, with northwest winds and increased cloud cover limiting radiative cooling after peak daytime highs near 30°C. This setup favors a minimum temperature clustered around 13–14°C, aligning with market-implied odds of 39.5% and 37% respectively. Differentiation between 12°C and 14°C outcomes hinges on subtle factors such as exact wind speeds, boundary-layer moisture, and any timing shifts in a weak frontal passage, which could enhance or suppress overnight lows by 1–2°C. Historical mid-September averages near 11.5°C provide context, yet current patterns reflect a warmer baseline. Updated model runs and Météo-France guidance over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$645End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from European models indicate a cooling shift for Paris overnight on September 15–16, with northwest winds and increased cloud cover limiting radiative cooling after peak daytime highs near 30°C. This setup favors a minimum temperature clustered around 13–14°C, aligning with market-implied odds of 39.5% and 37% respectively. Differentiation between 12°C and 14°C outcomes hinges on subtle factors such as exact wind speeds, boundary-layer moisture, and any timing shifts in a weak frontal passage, which could enhance or suppress overnight lows by 1–2°C. Historical mid-September averages near 11.5°C provide context, yet current patterns reflect a warmer baseline. Updated model runs and Météo-France guidance over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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