Recent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts indicate mostly clear skies and light winds across Seoul overnight on May 17, promoting strong radiational cooling that favors a daily minimum near 14°C. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology, where stable high-pressure patterns often produce sharper overnight temperature drops than average, and supporting ensemble guidance from nearby stations shows consistent values. Traders have priced this outcome at near-certain implied probability given the short lead time and model convergence. The primary uncertainty stems from any unexpected increase in low-level cloud cover or wind before dawn, which could reduce radiative losses and nudge the observed low to 15°C or higher when final KMA data are recorded between 3 a.m. and 9 a.m. local time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul on May 17?
Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 17?
14°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
15°C <1%
$19,775 Vol.
$19,775 Vol.
May 17, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
100%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
14°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
15°C <1%
$19,775 Vol.
$19,775 Vol.
May 17, 2026
12°C or below
$1,641 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1,820 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,727 Vol.
100%
15°C
$1,073 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$888 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$850 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$2,719 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$3,145 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$3,283 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,818 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$812 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts indicate mostly clear skies and light winds across Seoul overnight on May 17, promoting strong radiational cooling that favors a daily minimum near 14°C. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology, where stable high-pressure patterns often produce sharper overnight temperature drops than average, and supporting ensemble guidance from nearby stations shows consistent values. Traders have priced this outcome at near-certain implied probability given the short lead time and model convergence. The primary uncertainty stems from any unexpected increase in low-level cloud cover or wind before dawn, which could reduce radiative losses and nudge the observed low to 15°C or higher when final KMA data are recorded between 3 a.m. and 9 a.m. local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$19,775End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts indicate mostly clear skies and light winds across Seoul overnight on May 17, promoting strong radiational cooling that favors a daily minimum near 14°C. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology, where stable high-pressure patterns often produce sharper overnight temperature drops than average, and supporting ensemble guidance from nearby stations shows consistent values. Traders have priced this outcome at near-certain implied probability given the short lead time and model convergence. The primary uncertainty stems from any unexpected increase in low-level cloud cover or wind before dawn, which could reduce radiative losses and nudge the observed low to 15°C or higher when final KMA data are recorded between 3 a.m. and 9 a.m. local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$19,775End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIRecent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts indicate mostly clear skies and light winds across Seoul overnight on May 17, promoting strong radiational cooling that favors a daily minimum near 14°C. This setup aligns with mid-May climatology, where stable high-pressure patterns often produce sharper overnight temperature drops than average, and supporting ensemble guidance from nearby stations shows consistent values. Traders have priced this outcome at near-certain implied probability given the short lead time and model convergence. The primary uncertainty stems from any unexpected increase in low-level cloud cover or wind before dawn, which could reduce radiative losses and nudge the observed low to 15°C or higher when final KMA data are recorded between 3 a.m. and 9 a.m. local time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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