Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 19°C (31.5%) and 20°C (31.0%) for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 14 at Pudong International Airport, reflecting ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF projecting overnight lows near 19.5–20°C amid persistent cloud cover and 40–45% chance of passing showers. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling by trapping heat, while moderate humidity around 50–55% and southerly winds temper further drops, differentiating the outcomes—clearer skies could dip to 19°C, fuller overcast holding at 20°C. Recent model runs over the past 24 hours show slight cooling from prior 21°C estimates due to incoming moist air mass. Watch China Meteorological Administration updates and hourly observations starting late May 13 for resolution shifts, as typical mid-May baselines hover 18–20°C with high forecast uncertainty at 48-hour range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 14?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 14?
20°C 59%
19°C 19%
18°C 9%
21°C 2.6%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
9%
19°C
29%
20°C
59%
21°C
3%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 59%
19°C 19%
18°C 9%
21°C 2.6%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
15°C or below
$169 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$64 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$629 Vol.
1%
18°C
$108 Vol.
9%
19°C
$91 Vol.
29%
20°C
$160 Vol.
59%
21°C
$395 Vol.
3%
22°C
$703 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$670 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$844 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$757 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 19°C (31.5%) and 20°C (31.0%) for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 14 at Pudong International Airport, reflecting ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF projecting overnight lows near 19.5–20°C amid persistent cloud cover and 40–45% chance of passing showers. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling by trapping heat, while moderate humidity around 50–55% and southerly winds temper further drops, differentiating the outcomes—clearer skies could dip to 19°C, fuller overcast holding at 20°C. Recent model runs over the past 24 hours show slight cooling from prior 21°C estimates due to incoming moist air mass. Watch China Meteorological Administration updates and hourly observations starting late May 13 for resolution shifts, as typical mid-May baselines hover 18–20°C with high forecast uncertainty at 48-hour range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
Volume
$4,591End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 19°C (31.5%) and 20°C (31.0%) for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 14 at Pudong International Airport, reflecting ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF projecting overnight lows near 19.5–20°C amid persistent cloud cover and 40–45% chance of passing showers. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling by trapping heat, while moderate humidity around 50–55% and southerly winds temper further drops, differentiating the outcomes—clearer skies could dip to 19°C, fuller overcast holding at 20°C. Recent model runs over the past 24 hours show slight cooling from prior 21°C estimates due to incoming moist air mass. Watch China Meteorological Administration updates and hourly observations starting late May 13 for resolution shifts, as typical mid-May baselines hover 18–20°C with high forecast uncertainty at 48-hour range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,591End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 19°C (31.5%) and 20°C (31.0%) for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 14 at Pudong International Airport, reflecting ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF projecting overnight lows near 19.5–20°C amid persistent cloud cover and 40–45% chance of passing showers. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling by trapping heat, while moderate humidity around 50–55% and southerly winds temper further drops, differentiating the outcomes—clearer skies could dip to 19°C, fuller overcast holding at 20°C. Recent model runs over the past 24 hours show slight cooling from prior 21°C estimates due to incoming moist air mass. Watch China Meteorological Administration updates and hourly observations starting late May 13 for resolution shifts, as typical mid-May baselines hover 18–20°C with high forecast uncertainty at 48-hour range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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