Forecast models for Shanghai's overnight low on September 16 show modest spread around 21–23 °C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds near 22 °C. Primary variables include the strength of nocturnal radiative cooling under variable cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture from the East China Sea, and light northerly flow that could limit or enhance urban heat retention. September climatology places typical minimums near 20–24 °C, but short-range ensembles diverge on whether a weak frontal passage or clearer skies will push readings a degree or two lower or allow residual warmth to hold. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs expected within 24 hours should narrow the range and clarify resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 16?
27°C or higher 50%
22°C 37%
19°C 31%
20°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
17°C or below
20%
18°C
24%
19°C
31%
20°C
31%
21°C
21%
22°C
37%
23°C
22%
24°C
31%
25°C
31%
26°C
24%
27°C or higher
50%
27°C or higher 50%
22°C 37%
19°C 31%
20°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
20%
18°C
$0 Vol.
24%
19°C
$0 Vol.
31%
20°C
$0 Vol.
31%
21°C
$0 Vol.
21%
22°C
$21 Vol.
37%
23°C
$0 Vol.
22%
24°C
$0 Vol.
31%
25°C
$0 Vol.
31%
26°C
$0 Vol.
24%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models for Shanghai's overnight low on September 16 show modest spread around 21–23 °C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds near 22 °C. Primary variables include the strength of nocturnal radiative cooling under variable cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture from the East China Sea, and light northerly flow that could limit or enhance urban heat retention. September climatology places typical minimums near 20–24 °C, but short-range ensembles diverge on whether a weak frontal passage or clearer skies will push readings a degree or two lower or allow residual warmth to hold. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs expected within 24 hours should narrow the range and clarify resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$21End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models for Shanghai's overnight low on September 16 show modest spread around 21–23 °C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds near 22 °C. Primary variables include the strength of nocturnal radiative cooling under variable cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture from the East China Sea, and light northerly flow that could limit or enhance urban heat retention. September climatology places typical minimums near 20–24 °C, but short-range ensembles diverge on whether a weak frontal passage or clearer skies will push readings a degree or two lower or allow residual warmth to hold. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs expected within 24 hours should narrow the range and clarify resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models for Shanghai's overnight low on September 16 show modest spread around 21–23 °C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds near 22 °C. Primary variables include the strength of nocturnal radiative cooling under variable cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture from the East China Sea, and light northerly flow that could limit or enhance urban heat retention. September climatology places typical minimums near 20–24 °C, but short-range ensembles diverge on whether a weak frontal passage or clearer skies will push readings a degree or two lower or allow residual warmth to hold. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs expected within 24 hours should narrow the range and clarify resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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