Recent model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration points to persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate rainfall over Shenzhen on August 31, driven by residual monsoon influences and regional circulation patterns, keeping overnight radiative cooling limited and supporting minimum temperatures near 25–26°C. High humidity near 90% combined with light northeasterly winds further reduces the diurnal range by trapping heat and moisture. Subtle differences in forecast timing and intensity of precipitation create tight market-implied odds among 24–26°C outcomes, as heavier or more prolonged rain could suppress the low by an additional degree while clearer breaks allow slightly more cooling. Updated runs from global and regional models, alongside local observatory briefings, will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 31?
22°C or below 92%
24°C 88%
23°C 85%
32°C or higher 82%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
22°C or below
92%
23°C
85%
24°C
88%
25°C
45%
26°C
50%
27°C
36%
28°C
47%
29°C
49%
30°C
2%
31°C
46%
32°C or higher
82%
22°C or below 92%
24°C 88%
23°C 85%
32°C or higher 82%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
92%
23°C
$0 Vol.
85%
24°C
$0 Vol.
88%
25°C
$0 Vol.
45%
26°C
$0 Vol.
50%
27°C
$0 Vol.
36%
28°C
$0 Vol.
47%
29°C
$0 Vol.
49%
30°C
$0 Vol.
2%
31°C
$0 Vol.
46%
32°C or higher
$130 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration points to persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate rainfall over Shenzhen on August 31, driven by residual monsoon influences and regional circulation patterns, keeping overnight radiative cooling limited and supporting minimum temperatures near 25–26°C. High humidity near 90% combined with light northeasterly winds further reduces the diurnal range by trapping heat and moisture. Subtle differences in forecast timing and intensity of precipitation create tight market-implied odds among 24–26°C outcomes, as heavier or more prolonged rain could suppress the low by an additional degree while clearer breaks allow slightly more cooling. Updated runs from global and regional models, alongside local observatory briefings, will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$130End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration points to persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate rainfall over Shenzhen on August 31, driven by residual monsoon influences and regional circulation patterns, keeping overnight radiative cooling limited and supporting minimum temperatures near 25–26°C. High humidity near 90% combined with light northeasterly winds further reduces the diurnal range by trapping heat and moisture. Subtle differences in forecast timing and intensity of precipitation create tight market-implied odds among 24–26°C outcomes, as heavier or more prolonged rain could suppress the low by an additional degree while clearer breaks allow slightly more cooling. Updated runs from global and regional models, alongside local observatory briefings, will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$130End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration points to persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate rainfall over Shenzhen on August 31, driven by residual monsoon influences and regional circulation patterns, keeping overnight radiative cooling limited and supporting minimum temperatures near 25–26°C. High humidity near 90% combined with light northeasterly winds further reduces the diurnal range by trapping heat and moisture. Subtle differences in forecast timing and intensity of precipitation create tight market-implied odds among 24–26°C outcomes, as heavier or more prolonged rain could suppress the low by an additional degree while clearer breaks allow slightly more cooling. Updated runs from global and regional models, alongside local observatory briefings, will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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