Montana's Republican-leaning electorate and the late withdrawal of incumbent Senator Steve Daines have positioned the GOP nominee as the clear frontrunner in the 2026 Senate race. Daines exited the contest just before the March filing deadline and endorsed U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who quickly secured President Trump's backing and faces limited primary opposition. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president, has raised substantial funds and is collecting signatures for ballot access, yet polling shows him trailing the expected Republican standard-bearer. Democratic primary contenders, including Reilly Neill, have struggled with fundraising and face an uphill path in a state that last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2018. Traders' consensus assigns the Republican outcome the highest implied probability, reflecting these structural advantages and the absence of major recent shifts that would alter the competitive landscape ahead of the June primaries and November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRepublican 78%
Independent 18.2%
Democrat 2.2%
$72,988 Vol.
$72,988 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
78%
Independent
18%
Democrat
2%
Republican 78%
Independent 18.2%
Democrat 2.2%
$72,988 Vol.
$72,988 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$37,499 Vol.
78%
Independent
$1,575 Vol.
18%
Democrat
$33,914 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Montana's Republican-leaning electorate and the late withdrawal of incumbent Senator Steve Daines have positioned the GOP nominee as the clear frontrunner in the 2026 Senate race. Daines exited the contest just before the March filing deadline and endorsed U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who quickly secured President Trump's backing and faces limited primary opposition. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president, has raised substantial funds and is collecting signatures for ballot access, yet polling shows him trailing the expected Republican standard-bearer. Democratic primary contenders, including Reilly Neill, have struggled with fundraising and face an uphill path in a state that last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2018. Traders' consensus assigns the Republican outcome the highest implied probability, reflecting these structural advantages and the absence of major recent shifts that would alter the competitive landscape ahead of the June primaries and November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$72,988End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Montana's Republican-leaning electorate and the late withdrawal of incumbent Senator Steve Daines have positioned the GOP nominee as the clear frontrunner in the 2026 Senate race. Daines exited the contest just before the March filing deadline and endorsed U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who quickly secured President Trump's backing and faces limited primary opposition. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president, has raised substantial funds and is collecting signatures for ballot access, yet polling shows him trailing the expected Republican standard-bearer. Democratic primary contenders, including Reilly Neill, have struggled with fundraising and face an uphill path in a state that last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2018. Traders' consensus assigns the Republican outcome the highest implied probability, reflecting these structural advantages and the absence of major recent shifts that would alter the competitive landscape ahead of the June primaries and November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$72,988End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Montana's Republican-leaning electorate and the late withdrawal of incumbent Senator Steve Daines have positioned the GOP nominee as the clear frontrunner in the 2026 Senate race. Daines exited the contest just before the March filing deadline and endorsed U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who quickly secured President Trump's backing and faces limited primary opposition. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president, has raised substantial funds and is collecting signatures for ballot access, yet polling shows him trailing the expected Republican standard-bearer. Democratic primary contenders, including Reilly Neill, have struggled with fundraising and face an uphill path in a state that last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2018. Traders' consensus assigns the Republican outcome the highest implied probability, reflecting these structural advantages and the absence of major recent shifts that would alter the competitive landscape ahead of the June primaries and November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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