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Elections·Greenland

Next Prime Minister of Denmark?

icon for Next Prime Minister of Denmark?
Elections·Greenland

Next Prime Minister of Denmark?

Mette Frederiksen 74%

Lars Løkke Rasmussen 9.3%

Troels Lund Poulsen 8.0%

Alex Vanopslagh <1%

Polymarket

$8,677,855 Vol.

Mette Frederiksen 74%

Lars Løkke Rasmussen 9.3%

Troels Lund Poulsen 8.0%

Alex Vanopslagh <1%

Polymarket

$8,677,855 Vol.

icon for Mette Frederiksen

Mette Frederiksen

$1,541,348 Vol.

74%

icon for Lars Løkke Rasmussen

Lars Løkke Rasmussen

$2,114,020 Vol.

9%

icon for Troels Lund Poulsen

Troels Lund Poulsen

$1,238,228 Vol.

8%

icon for Alex Vanopslagh

Alex Vanopslagh

$720,223 Vol.

1%

icon for Martin Lidegaard

Martin Lidegaard

$70,991 Vol.

<1%

icon for Lars Boje Mathiesen

Lars Boje Mathiesen

$446,242 Vol.

<1%

icon for Morten Messerschmidt

Morten Messerschmidt

$2,133,250 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mona Juul

Mona Juul

$152,737 Vol.

<1%

icon for Inger Støjberg

Inger Støjberg

$45,439 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pia Olsen Dyhr

Pia Olsen Dyhr

$141,372 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pelle Dragsted

Pelle Dragsted

$74,005 Vol.

<1%

A Parliamentary election is scheduled to be held in Denmark on March 24, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of Denmark following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Prime Minister by the Danish monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mette Frederiksen leads the trader consensus for Denmark’s next prime minister because her Social Democrats secured the largest share of seats in the March 2026 Folketing election, even without a majority bloc. This outcome aligns with Denmark’s parliamentary tradition of appointing the leader of the biggest party to explore coalition formation first. Recent developments include seven weeks of stalled talks that prompted King Frederik X on May 9 to shift the mandate to Venstre’s Troels Lund Poulsen for center-right negotiations, while Moderates leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen retains pivotal kingmaker influence. These fluid coalition dynamics and the two-week deadline continue to shape implied probabilities, with uncertainty over potential cross-bloc deals keeping Frederiksen’s position dominant yet not assured.

A Parliamentary election is scheduled to be held in Denmark on March 24, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of Denmark following the 2026 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Prime Minister by the Danish monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,677,855
End Date
Mar 24, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A Parliamentary election is scheduled to be held in Denmark on March 24, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of Denmark following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Prime Minister by the Danish monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A Parliamentary election is scheduled to be held in Denmark on March 24, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of Denmark following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Prime Minister by the Danish monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mette Frederiksen leads the trader consensus for Denmark’s next prime minister because her Social Democrats secured the largest share of seats in the March 2026 Folketing election, even without a majority bloc. This outcome aligns with Denmark’s parliamentary tradition of appointing the leader of the biggest party to explore coalition formation first. Recent developments include seven weeks of stalled talks that prompted King Frederik X on May 9 to shift the mandate to Venstre’s Troels Lund Poulsen for center-right negotiations, while Moderates leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen retains pivotal kingmaker influence. These fluid coalition dynamics and the two-week deadline continue to shape implied probabilities, with uncertainty over potential cross-bloc deals keeping Frederiksen’s position dominant yet not assured.

A Parliamentary election is scheduled to be held in Denmark on March 24, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of Denmark following the 2026 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Prime Minister by the Danish monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,677,855
End Date
Mar 24, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A Parliamentary election is scheduled to be held in Denmark on March 24, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of Denmark following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Prime Minister by the Danish monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Prime Minister of Denmark?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mette Frederiksen" at 74%, followed by "Lars Løkke Rasmussen" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Prime Minister of Denmark?" has generated $8.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Prime Minister of Denmark?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Prime Minister of Denmark?" is "Mette Frederiksen" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lars Løkke Rasmussen" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Prime Minister of Denmark?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.