Mette Frederiksen leads trader consensus in the Danish parliamentary election market due to her Social Democrats emerging as the largest party in the March 24 vote, despite the bloc falling short of a Folketing majority. Prolonged coalition negotiations, the longest in modern history, initially centered on cross-bloc arrangements before collapsing after seven weeks. This prompted King Frederik X on May 9 to assign Venstre leader Troels Lund Poulsen the task of forming a center-right government, elevating his implied probability while Moderates chief Lars Løkke Rasmussen retains pivotal kingmaker influence with seats that could tip outcomes in either direction. Ongoing talks face a two-week deadline, leaving room for shifts if new alliances form or existing proposals stall.