Micah Lasher’s narrow victory in the June 23, 2026, Democratic primary for New York’s 12th Congressional District explains the strong trader consensus favoring a sub-5% margin of victory. Lasher captured roughly 39% of the vote to Alex Bores’ 35%, prevailing in a crowded field that included Jack Schlossberg and George Conway after securing incumbent Jerry Nadler’s endorsement. His edge derived primarily from strong performance on the Upper West Side, offset by Bores’ strength in areas such as Midtown and Hudson Yards. Official canvassing and any remaining provisional or absentee ballot reviews represent the limited remaining variables that could alter the precise margin, though historical patterns in New York primaries indicate such adjustments rarely exceed a few percentage points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLasher <5% 100.0%
Lasher 15%+ <1%
Lasher 10–15% <1%
Lasher 5–10% <1%
$97,259 Vol.
$97,259 Vol.
Jun 23, 2026
Lasher 15%+
No
Lasher 10–15%
No
Lasher 5–10%
No
Lasher <5%
Yes
Bores 5%+
No
Bores <5%
No
Schlossberg Wins
No
Lasher <5% 100.0%
Lasher 15%+ <1%
Lasher 10–15% <1%
Lasher 5–10% <1%
$97,259 Vol.
$97,259 Vol.
Jun 23, 2026
Lasher 15%+
$4,681 Vol.
No
Lasher 10–15%
$4,346 Vol.
No
Lasher 5–10%
$6,588 Vol.
No
Lasher <5%
$16,028 Vol.
Yes
Bores 5%+
$27,860 Vol.
No
Bores <5%
$36,412 Vol.
No
Schlossberg Wins
$1,344 Vol.
No
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Micah Lasher’s narrow victory in the June 23, 2026, Democratic primary for New York’s 12th Congressional District explains the strong trader consensus favoring a sub-5% margin of victory. Lasher captured roughly 39% of the vote to Alex Bores’ 35%, prevailing in a crowded field that included Jack Schlossberg and George Conway after securing incumbent Jerry Nadler’s endorsement. His edge derived primarily from strong performance on the Upper West Side, offset by Bores’ strength in areas such as Midtown and Hudson Yards. Official canvassing and any remaining provisional or absentee ballot reviews represent the limited remaining variables that could alter the precise margin, though historical patterns in New York primaries indicate such adjustments rarely exceed a few percentage points.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jun 15, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Volume
$97,259End Date
Jun 24, 2026Market Opened
Jun 15, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Micah Lasher’s narrow victory in the June 23, 2026, Democratic primary for New York’s 12th Congressional District explains the strong trader consensus favoring a sub-5% margin of victory. Lasher captured roughly 39% of the vote to Alex Bores’ 35%, prevailing in a crowded field that included Jack Schlossberg and George Conway after securing incumbent Jerry Nadler’s endorsement. His edge derived primarily from strong performance on the Upper West Side, offset by Bores’ strength in areas such as Midtown and Hudson Yards. Official canvassing and any remaining provisional or absentee ballot reviews represent the limited remaining variables that could alter the precise margin, though historical patterns in New York primaries indicate such adjustments rarely exceed a few percentage points.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$97,259End Date
Jun 24, 2026Market Opened
Jun 15, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Micah Lasher’s narrow victory in the June 23, 2026, Democratic primary for New York’s 12th Congressional District explains the strong trader consensus favoring a sub-5% margin of victory. Lasher captured roughly 39% of the vote to Alex Bores’ 35%, prevailing in a crowded field that included Jack Schlossberg and George Conway after securing incumbent Jerry Nadler’s endorsement. His edge derived primarily from strong performance on the Upper West Side, offset by Bores’ strength in areas such as Midtown and Hudson Yards. Official canvassing and any remaining provisional or absentee ballot reviews represent the limited remaining variables that could alter the precise margin, though historical patterns in New York primaries indicate such adjustments rarely exceed a few percentage points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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