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icon for Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place
Elections·Peru

Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place

icon for Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place
Elections·Peru

Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place

Jorge Nieto 100.0%

Keiko Fujimori <1%

Carlos Álvarez <1%

Alfonso López Chau <1%

Polymarket

$475,801 Vol.

Jorge Nieto 100.0%

Keiko Fujimori <1%

Carlos Álvarez <1%

Alfonso López Chau <1%

Polymarket

$475,801 Vol.

icon for Keiko Fujimori

Keiko Fujimori

$2,042 Vol.

No

icon for Carlos Álvarez

Carlos Álvarez

$5,121 Vol.

No

icon for Alfonso López Chau

Alfonso López Chau

$9,067 Vol.

No

icon for José Luna

José Luna

$856 Vol.

No

icon for Roberto Chiabra

Roberto Chiabra

$1,116 Vol.

No

icon for José Williams

José Williams

$6,181 Vol.

No

icon for Ricardo Belmont

Ricardo Belmont

$228,239 Vol.

No

icon for Carlos Espá

Carlos Espá

$3,676 Vol.

No

icon for Yonhy Lescano

Yonhy Lescano

$2,679 Vol.

No

icon for Marisol Pérez Tello

Marisol Pérez Tello

$2,795 Vol.

No

icon for Roberto Sánchez Palomino

Roberto Sánchez Palomino

$60,466 Vol.

No

icon for Rafael López Aliaga

Rafael López Aliaga

$52,751 Vol.

No

icon for Mario Vizcarra

Mario Vizcarra

$3,346 Vol.

No

icon for César Acuña

César Acuña

$4,811 Vol.

No

icon for Vladimir Cerrón

Vladimir Cerrón

$3,610 Vol.

No

icon for George Forsyth

George Forsyth

$4,353 Vol.

No

icon for Enrique Valderrama

Enrique Valderrama

$7,705 Vol.

No

icon for Fiorella Molinelli

Fiorella Molinelli

$4,206 Vol.

No

icon for Fernando Olivera

Fernando Olivera

$3,768 Vol.

No

icon for Rafael Belaúnde Llosa

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa

$3,658 Vol.

No

icon for Mesías Guevara

Mesías Guevara

$4,351 Vol.

No

icon for Jorge Nieto

Jorge Nieto

$56,767 Vol.

Yes

icon for Wolfgang Grozo

Wolfgang Grozo

$4,238 Vol.

No

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Jorge Nieto's commanding position in the Peru presidential election first-round 4th-place market stems from the April 12, 2026, vote tallies showing him finishing behind Keiko Fujimori, Roberto Sánchez, and Rafael López Aliaga in a field of 35 candidates that produced extreme fragmentation. As former defense and culture minister with a centrist profile under the Partido del Buen Gobierno, Nieto secured consistent mid-teens support in pre-election polling and early counts, outpacing other contenders through established name recognition and policy emphasis on governance reforms. With over 99% of ballots now tallied by the National Office of Electoral Processes, the outcome appears locked barring any unforeseen recount adjustments or legal challenges to the final certification expected in the coming days.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$475,801
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 10:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Jorge Nieto's commanding position in the Peru presidential election first-round 4th-place market stems from the April 12, 2026, vote tallies showing him finishing behind Keiko Fujimori, Roberto Sánchez, and Rafael López Aliaga in a field of 35 candidates that produced extreme fragmentation. As former defense and culture minister with a centrist profile under the Partido del Buen Gobierno, Nieto secured consistent mid-teens support in pre-election polling and early counts, outpacing other contenders through established name recognition and policy emphasis on governance reforms. With over 99% of ballots now tallied by the National Office of Electoral Processes, the outcome appears locked barring any unforeseen recount adjustments or legal challenges to the final certification expected in the coming days.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$475,801
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 10:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jorge Nieto" at 100%, followed by "Keiko Fujimori" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" has generated $475.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" is "Jorge Nieto" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Keiko Fujimori" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.