The 2025 Thailand-Cambodia border crisis, rooted in longstanding territorial claims around ancient temples such as Preah Vihear and Ta Muen Thom, escalated into artillery exchanges and Thai airstrikes along the shared frontier from July through December. Multiple ceasefires followed, including the December 27, 2025 agreement that remains in effect amid ongoing displacement of over 400,000 civilians and sporadic incidents like mortar fire or landmine explosions. Diplomatic efforts involving ASEAN, Malaysia, China, and the United States have emphasized de-escalation, troop withdrawals, and landmine clearance, reducing the immediate risk of renewed Thai military strikes. Traders monitoring the market assess the current fragile truce against potential triggers such as border clashes or political shifts in either capital before the June 30, 2026 resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedThailand strikes Cambodia by...?
Thailand strikes Cambodia by...?
$69,402 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
June 30, 2026
5%
$69,402 Vol.
June 30, 2026
$24,989 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.The 2025 Thailand-Cambodia border crisis, rooted in longstanding territorial claims around ancient temples such as Preah Vihear and Ta Muen Thom, escalated into artillery exchanges and Thai airstrikes along the shared frontier from July through December. Multiple ceasefires followed, including the December 27, 2025 agreement that remains in effect amid ongoing displacement of over 400,000 civilians and sporadic incidents like mortar fire or landmine explosions. Diplomatic efforts involving ASEAN, Malaysia, China, and the United States have emphasized de-escalation, troop withdrawals, and landmine clearance, reducing the immediate risk of renewed Thai military strikes. Traders monitoring the market assess the current fragile truce against potential triggers such as border clashes or political shifts in either capital before the June 30, 2026 resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 4:45 PM ET
Volume
$69,402End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.The 2025 Thailand-Cambodia border crisis, rooted in longstanding territorial claims around ancient temples such as Preah Vihear and Ta Muen Thom, escalated into artillery exchanges and Thai airstrikes along the shared frontier from July through December. Multiple ceasefires followed, including the December 27, 2025 agreement that remains in effect amid ongoing displacement of over 400,000 civilians and sporadic incidents like mortar fire or landmine explosions. Diplomatic efforts involving ASEAN, Malaysia, China, and the United States have emphasized de-escalation, troop withdrawals, and landmine clearance, reducing the immediate risk of renewed Thai military strikes. Traders monitoring the market assess the current fragile truce against potential triggers such as border clashes or political shifts in either capital before the June 30, 2026 resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
Volume
$69,402End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2025 Thailand-Cambodia border crisis, rooted in longstanding territorial claims around ancient temples such as Preah Vihear and Ta Muen Thom, escalated into artillery exchanges and Thai airstrikes along the shared frontier from July through December. Multiple ceasefires followed, including the December 27, 2025 agreement that remains in effect amid ongoing displacement of over 400,000 civilians and sporadic incidents like mortar fire or landmine explosions. Diplomatic efforts involving ASEAN, Malaysia, China, and the United States have emphasized de-escalation, troop withdrawals, and landmine clearance, reducing the immediate risk of renewed Thai military strikes. Traders monitoring the market assess the current fragile truce against potential triggers such as border clashes or political shifts in either capital before the June 30, 2026 resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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