Recent Kremlin statements underscore the entrenched barriers to a swift resolution, with officials describing any comprehensive agreement as a very long way off amid unresolved disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and neutrality commitments. A U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11, tied to Victory Day commemorations and prisoner exchanges, produced no breakthrough on core issues, as Moscow demanded Ukrainian withdrawals from Donbas before substantive talks could advance. Ukrainian envoys continue consultations with U.S. counterparts to reactivate diplomacy, yet both sides report ongoing violations and military activity. This sustained deadlock, without scheduled summits or concessions resolving key sticking points before the June 30 deadline, underpins the 94.3 percent trader consensus on "No."
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$439,195 Vol.
$439,195 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$439,195 Vol.
$439,195 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent Kremlin statements underscore the entrenched barriers to a swift resolution, with officials describing any comprehensive agreement as a very long way off amid unresolved disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and neutrality commitments. A U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11, tied to Victory Day commemorations and prisoner exchanges, produced no breakthrough on core issues, as Moscow demanded Ukrainian withdrawals from Donbas before substantive talks could advance. Ukrainian envoys continue consultations with U.S. counterparts to reactivate diplomacy, yet both sides report ongoing violations and military activity. This sustained deadlock, without scheduled summits or concessions resolving key sticking points before the June 30 deadline, underpins the 94.3 percent trader consensus on "No."
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Volume
$439,195End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent Kremlin statements underscore the entrenched barriers to a swift resolution, with officials describing any comprehensive agreement as a very long way off amid unresolved disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and neutrality commitments. A U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11, tied to Victory Day commemorations and prisoner exchanges, produced no breakthrough on core issues, as Moscow demanded Ukrainian withdrawals from Donbas before substantive talks could advance. Ukrainian envoys continue consultations with U.S. counterparts to reactivate diplomacy, yet both sides report ongoing violations and military activity. This sustained deadlock, without scheduled summits or concessions resolving key sticking points before the June 30 deadline, underpins the 94.3 percent trader consensus on "No."
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$439,195End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Kremlin statements underscore the entrenched barriers to a swift resolution, with officials describing any comprehensive agreement as a very long way off amid unresolved disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and neutrality commitments. A U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11, tied to Victory Day commemorations and prisoner exchanges, produced no breakthrough on core issues, as Moscow demanded Ukrainian withdrawals from Donbas before substantive talks could advance. Ukrainian envoys continue consultations with U.S. counterparts to reactivate diplomacy, yet both sides report ongoing violations and military activity. This sustained deadlock, without scheduled summits or concessions resolving key sticking points before the June 30 deadline, underpins the 94.3 percent trader consensus on "No."
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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