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Politics·Primaries

WI-07 Republican Primary Winner

icon for WI-07 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

WI-07 Republican Primary Winner

Michael Alfonso 100.0%

Niina Baum <1%

Jessi Ebben <1%

Kevin Hermening <1%

Polymarket

$26,383 Vol.

Michael Alfonso 100.0%

Niina Baum <1%

Jessi Ebben <1%

Kevin Hermening <1%

Polymarket

$26,383 Vol.

icon for Michael Alfonso

Michael Alfonso

$14,430 Vol.

Yes

icon for Niina Baum

Niina Baum

$1,299 Vol.

No

icon for Jessi Ebben

Jessi Ebben

$2,983 Vol.

No

icon for Kevin Hermening

Kevin Hermening

$6,628 Vol.

No

icon for Don Raihala

Don Raihala

$1,043 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Michael Alfonso secured overwhelming trader consensus in the WI-07 Republican primary through high-profile endorsements from President Trump and former district Representative Sean Duffy, whose family connection amplified visibility and grassroots support in the solidly Republican northern Wisconsin district. Alfonso's campaign demonstrated superior fundraising exceeding $1.2 million and consistent polling leads, positioning him as the clear frontrunner among competitors including Jessi Ebben, Kevin Hermening, Niina Baum, and Don Raihala ahead of the August 11 vote. The open seat created by Tom Tiffany's gubernatorial bid further concentrated attention on established America First messaging and organizational advantages. Late developments such as unexpected legal challenges or turnout anomalies could theoretically shift outcomes, though primary results have now aligned with the market's implied probability.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$26,383
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Michael Alfonso secured overwhelming trader consensus in the WI-07 Republican primary through high-profile endorsements from President Trump and former district Representative Sean Duffy, whose family connection amplified visibility and grassroots support in the solidly Republican northern Wisconsin district. Alfonso's campaign demonstrated superior fundraising exceeding $1.2 million and consistent polling leads, positioning him as the clear frontrunner among competitors including Jessi Ebben, Kevin Hermening, Niina Baum, and Don Raihala ahead of the August 11 vote. The open seat created by Tom Tiffany's gubernatorial bid further concentrated attention on established America First messaging and organizational advantages. Late developments such as unexpected legal challenges or turnout anomalies could theoretically shift outcomes, though primary results have now aligned with the market's implied probability.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$26,383
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"WI-07 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Michael Alfonso" at 100%, followed by "Niina Baum" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "WI-07 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $26.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "WI-07 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "WI-07 Republican Primary Winner" is "Michael Alfonso" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Niina Baum" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "WI-07 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.