Diplomatic relations between the United States and key partners remain stable enough to avoid formal expulsions of American ambassadors through the end of 2026. Although Iranian officials in March publicly conditioned Strait of Hormuz access on such actions by Arab and European states, no government has followed through. In South Africa, calls persist for the removal of the current U.S. envoy over remarks on domestic policy and alliances, yet Pretoria has issued only demands for clarification rather than a persona non grata declaration. U.S. recalls of its own diplomats from multiple posts reflect internal personnel shifts, not reciprocal expulsions. Traders therefore assign a 72.5 percent probability to “No,” viewing the absence of concrete steps amid routine frictions as consistent with historical patterns of managed bilateral tensions.