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Élections·Moyen-Orient

Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire libanaise

icon for Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire libanaise
Élections·Moyen-Orient

Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire libanaise

Mouvement Amal (Amal) 6.9%

Forces libanaises (FL) 5.2%

Parti Taqaddom 3.3%

Association des projets islamiques caritatifs (APIC) 2.6%

Polymarket

$532,450 Vol.

Mouvement Amal (Amal) 6.9%

Forces libanaises (FL) 5.2%

Parti Taqaddom 3.3%

Association des projets islamiques caritatifs (APIC) 2.6%

Polymarket

$532,450 Vol.

Mouvement Amal (Amal)

$53,709 Vol.

7%

Forces libanaises (FL)

$158,091 Vol.

5%

Parti Taqaddom

$6,113 Vol.

3%

Association des projets islamiques caritatifs (APIC)

$4,398 Vol.

3%

Hezbollah (Hezb)

$44,038 Vol.

3%

ReLebanon

$3,307 Vol.

3%

Mouvement Marada (MM)

$3,796 Vol.

2%

Coalition Watani (Watani)

$4,686 Vol.

2%

Mouvement patriotique libre (CPL)

$74,483 Vol.

2%

Parti Kataeb (Kataeb)

$4,126 Vol.

1%

Parti de l'Union (UP)

$3,376 Vol.

1%

Mouvement nassérien populaire (PNO)

$4,584 Vol.

1%

Parti national libéral (PNL)

$5,135 Vol.

1%

Groupe islamique (IG)

$3,585 Vol.

<1%

Parti du Dialogue National (PDN)

$41,888 Vol.

<1%

Parti révolutionnaire arménien (PRA)

$5,112 Vol.

<1%

Parti Mada (Mada)

$24,363 Vol.

<1%

Lana – Parti social-démocrate (Lana)

$4,450 Vol.

<1%

Parti socialiste arabe Baas au Liban (Baas)

$6,573 Vol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$3,330 Vol.

<1%

Parti socialiste progressiste (PSP)

$47,456 Vol.

<1%

Mouvement de l'Indépendance (IM)

$3,135 Vol.

<1%

Mouvement de la Dignité (DM)

$22,716 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's highly fragmented political landscape, shaped by its sectarian proportional representation system and ongoing regional conflict, keeps the parliamentary election winner market wide open. The recent two-year postponement of the 2026 vote amid renewed Israel-Hezbollah hostilities has delayed campaigning and alliance formation, leaving no bloc positioned for a clear plurality. Amal Movement holds a modest lead among traders on the strength of its entrenched Shia constituency and Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional role, while Lebanese Forces draws support from Christian voters opposed to Hezbollah influence. Smaller parties such as Taqaddom and ReLebanon reflect reformist and independent currents that remain divided. Consolidation behind any single outcome would likely require post-ceasefire coalition shifts, clearer diaspora voting rules, or major realignments among Sunni and Christian factions ahead of the rescheduled contest.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$532,450
Date de fin
31 mai 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's highly fragmented political landscape, shaped by its sectarian proportional representation system and ongoing regional conflict, keeps the parliamentary election winner market wide open. The recent two-year postponement of the 2026 vote amid renewed Israel-Hezbollah hostilities has delayed campaigning and alliance formation, leaving no bloc positioned for a clear plurality. Amal Movement holds a modest lead among traders on the strength of its entrenched Shia constituency and Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional role, while Lebanese Forces draws support from Christian voters opposed to Hezbollah influence. Smaller parties such as Taqaddom and ReLebanon reflect reformist and independent currents that remain divided. Consolidation behind any single outcome would likely require post-ceasefire coalition shifts, clearer diaspora voting rules, or major realignments among Sunni and Christian factions ahead of the rescheduled contest.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$532,450
Date de fin
31 mai 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

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Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire libanaise » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 23 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Mouvement Amal (Amal) » à 7%, suivi de « Forces libanaises (FL) » à 5%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 7¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 7% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire libanaise » a généré $532.5K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 6, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire libanaise », parcourez les 23 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire libanaise » est « Mouvement Amal (Amal) » à seulement 7%, avec « Forces libanaises (FL) » juste derrière à 5%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire libanaise » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.