Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 56-57°F as the lowest temperature in New York City on May 14, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official National Weather Service observations from the Central Park ASOS station (KNYC), which recorded the daily minimum in that range. Preceding 48-hour forecasts from NOAA models and NWS guidance had centered on 54-55°F with tight ensemble spreads, but actual conditions—featuring partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dew points around 45°F—yielded a warmer overnight low by 1-2 degrees, aligning with historical May climatology where Central Park lows average 55-57°F. Resolution awaits the final daily climatological report, though data corrections are exceedingly rare post-preliminary verification; only a confirmed measurement error could shift this outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in NYC on May 14?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 14?
56-57°F 100.0%
45°F or below <1%
46-47°F <1%
48-49°F <1%
$21,412 Wol.
$21,412 Wol.
May 14, 2026
45°F or below
No
46-47°F
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
Yes
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64°F or higher
No
56-57°F 100.0%
45°F or below <1%
46-47°F <1%
48-49°F <1%
$21,412 Wol.
$21,412 Wol.
May 14, 2026
45°F or below
$869 Wol.
No
46-47°F
$913 Wol.
No
48-49°F
$808 Wol.
No
50-51°F
$1,225 Wol.
No
52-53°F
$1,028 Wol.
No
54-55°F
$2,727 Wol.
No
56-57°F
$8,374 Wol.
Yes
58-59°F
$2,407 Wol.
No
60-61°F
$1,248 Wol.
No
62-63°F
$619 Wol.
No
64°F or higher
$1,194 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 56-57°F as the lowest temperature in New York City on May 14, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official National Weather Service observations from the Central Park ASOS station (KNYC), which recorded the daily minimum in that range. Preceding 48-hour forecasts from NOAA models and NWS guidance had centered on 54-55°F with tight ensemble spreads, but actual conditions—featuring partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dew points around 45°F—yielded a warmer overnight low by 1-2 degrees, aligning with historical May climatology where Central Park lows average 55-57°F. Resolution awaits the final daily climatological report, though data corrections are exceedingly rare post-preliminary verification; only a confirmed measurement error could shift this outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Wolumen
$21,412Data zakończenia
May 14, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 56-57°F as the lowest temperature in New York City on May 14, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official National Weather Service observations from the Central Park ASOS station (KNYC), which recorded the daily minimum in that range. Preceding 48-hour forecasts from NOAA models and NWS guidance had centered on 54-55°F with tight ensemble spreads, but actual conditions—featuring partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dew points around 45°F—yielded a warmer overnight low by 1-2 degrees, aligning with historical May climatology where Central Park lows average 55-57°F. Resolution awaits the final daily climatological report, though data corrections are exceedingly rare post-preliminary verification; only a confirmed measurement error could shift this outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$21,412Data zakończenia
May 14, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 56-57°F as the lowest temperature in New York City on May 14, 2026, at 100% implied probability, driven by official National Weather Service observations from the Central Park ASOS station (KNYC), which recorded the daily minimum in that range. Preceding 48-hour forecasts from NOAA models and NWS guidance had centered on 54-55°F with tight ensemble spreads, but actual conditions—featuring partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dew points around 45°F—yielded a warmer overnight low by 1-2 degrees, aligning with historical May climatology where Central Park lows average 55-57°F. Resolution awaits the final daily climatological report, though data corrections are exceedingly rare post-preliminary verification; only a confirmed measurement error could shift this outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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