Recent forecast models from Spain’s AEMET and international ensembles show a stable high-pressure system over the Iberian Peninsula, positioning Madrid’s May 17 high near 22 °C as the most likely outcome. Daytime solar heating under mostly clear skies and light southerly winds is expected to peak in the low-20s Celsius, consistent with climatological averages for mid-May. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with only modest afternoon variability from orographic effects around the city, keeping 21–23 °C outcomes collectively dominant in trader pricing. No significant model shifts have emerged in the latest runs, and no incoming frontal systems are forecast to alter temperatures before the daily maximum is recorded.