Current forecasts from global models such as GFS indicate Beijing will experience clear skies and light southerly winds overnight on September 12, with minimum temperatures expected near 14–16 °C, close to the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 16.9 °C. These conditions, combined with recent daytime highs in the mid-20s °C and no significant frontal passage, underpin the market’s strong 77.5% implied probability for a 13 °C low. Historical records show occasional dips to 9.5–12 °C under similar autumn setups, yet the absence of anomalous cooling or cloud cover keeps probabilities for 12 °C or below at secondary levels. Updated model runs and official station observations tonight will provide the final resolution data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月12日北京最低溫度？
9月12日北京最低溫度？
13°C 99.5%
10°C或以下 20%
11°C 20%
12°C 20%
$1,490 交易量
$1,490 交易量
2026-09-12
10°C或以下
否
11°C
否
12°C
否
13°C
是
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C或以上
否
13°C 99.5%
10°C或以下 20%
11°C 20%
12°C 20%
$1,490 交易量
$1,490 交易量
2026-09-12
10°C或以下
$10 交易量
否
11°C
$0 交易量
否
12°C
$25 交易量
否
13°C
$66 交易量
是
14°C
$386 交易量
否
15°C
$126 交易量
否
16°C
$90 交易量
否
17°C
$500 交易量
否
18°C
$25 交易量
否
19°C
$227 交易量
否
20°C或以上
$35 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from global models such as GFS indicate Beijing will experience clear skies and light southerly winds overnight on September 12, with minimum temperatures expected near 14–16 °C, close to the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 16.9 °C. These conditions, combined with recent daytime highs in the mid-20s °C and no significant frontal passage, underpin the market’s strong 77.5% implied probability for a 13 °C low. Historical records show occasional dips to 9.5–12 °C under similar autumn setups, yet the absence of anomalous cooling or cloud cover keeps probabilities for 12 °C or below at secondary levels. Updated model runs and official station observations tonight will provide the final resolution data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$1,490結束日期
2026-09-12市場開放時間
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from global models such as GFS indicate Beijing will experience clear skies and light southerly winds overnight on September 12, with minimum temperatures expected near 14–16 °C, close to the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 16.9 °C. These conditions, combined with recent daytime highs in the mid-20s °C and no significant frontal passage, underpin the market’s strong 77.5% implied probability for a 13 °C low. Historical records show occasional dips to 9.5–12 °C under similar autumn setups, yet the absence of anomalous cooling or cloud cover keeps probabilities for 12 °C or below at secondary levels. Updated model runs and official station observations tonight will provide the final resolution data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,490結束日期
2026-09-12市場開放時間
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Current forecasts from global models such as GFS indicate Beijing will experience clear skies and light southerly winds overnight on September 12, with minimum temperatures expected near 14–16 °C, close to the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 16.9 °C. These conditions, combined with recent daytime highs in the mid-20s °C and no significant frontal passage, underpin the market’s strong 77.5% implied probability for a 13 °C low. Historical records show occasional dips to 9.5–12 °C under similar autumn setups, yet the absence of anomalous cooling or cloud cover keeps probabilities for 12 °C or below at secondary levels. Updated model runs and official station observations tonight will provide the final resolution data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions