Miami's mid-June climatology, with average overnight lows near 76°F driven by subtropical warmth and Atlantic moisture, underpins the market's concentration around 76-79°F outcomes. Current National Weather Service model guidance and ensemble runs point to light winds and partly cloudy conditions limiting radiational cooling, keeping the expected minimum in that narrow band rather than pushing toward rarer sub-74°F readings. Recent upper-level ridging has suppressed thunderstorm activity that could otherwise enhance cooling, while sea surface temperatures near 84°F provide a warm boundary layer baseline. Traders appear to weigh the low historical variance in June minima against any late-model shifts ahead of the overnight period.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於6月15日邁阿密的最低溫度?
78-79°F 39%
76-77°F 24%
80-81華氏度 15%
74-75°F 5%
67°F或以下
<1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73華氏度
3%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
24%
78-79°F
39%
80-81華氏度
15%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
<1%
86°F或以上
<1%
78-79°F 39%
76-77°F 24%
80-81華氏度 15%
74-75°F 5%
67°F或以下
<1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73華氏度
3%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
24%
78-79°F
39%
80-81華氏度
15%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
<1%
86°F或以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Jun 13, 2026, 9:31 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Miami's mid-June climatology, with average overnight lows near 76°F driven by subtropical warmth and Atlantic moisture, underpins the market's concentration around 76-79°F outcomes. Current National Weather Service model guidance and ensemble runs point to light winds and partly cloudy conditions limiting radiational cooling, keeping the expected minimum in that narrow band rather than pushing toward rarer sub-74°F readings. Recent upper-level ridging has suppressed thunderstorm activity that could otherwise enhance cooling, while sea surface temperatures near 84°F provide a warm boundary layer baseline. Traders appear to weigh the low historical variance in June minima against any late-model shifts ahead of the overnight period.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions