Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts confirm a minimum temperature of 15°C for Tokyo on May 14 under partly cloudy skies transitioning to rain later, driving trader consensus to near-certainty on this outcome as reflected in market-implied odds. This positioning stems from high model agreement across JMA's short-range guidance and global ensembles like ECMWF, supported by a stable high-pressure ridge suppressing colder air advection amid typical mid-May climatological lows of 14–18°C at Tokyo's observatory. Overnight observations already approaching this threshold further solidify sentiment. Realistic challenges include unexpected clear skies enhancing radiational cooling to 14°C or prolonged cloud cover preventing the low—though current steering patterns make such shifts unlikely—with final JMA data expected by evening.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月14日東京最低溫度？
5月14日東京最低溫度？
15°C 100.0%
13°C或以下 <1%
14°C <1%
16°C <1%
$45,016 交易量
$45,016 交易量
2026-05-14
13°C或以下
否
14°C
否
15°C
是
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C或以上
否
15°C 100.0%
13°C或以下 <1%
14°C <1%
16°C <1%
$45,016 交易量
$45,016 交易量
2026-05-14
13°C或以下
$3,157 交易量
否
14°C
$2,941 交易量
否
15°C
$1,150 交易量
是
16°C
$9,271 交易量
否
17°C
$7,424 交易量
否
18°C
$14,849 交易量
否
19°C
$2,411 交易量
否
20°C
$793 交易量
否
21°C
$1,337 交易量
否
22°C
$758 交易量
否
23°C或以上
$924 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts confirm a minimum temperature of 15°C for Tokyo on May 14 under partly cloudy skies transitioning to rain later, driving trader consensus to near-certainty on this outcome as reflected in market-implied odds. This positioning stems from high model agreement across JMA's short-range guidance and global ensembles like ECMWF, supported by a stable high-pressure ridge suppressing colder air advection amid typical mid-May climatological lows of 14–18°C at Tokyo's observatory. Overnight observations already approaching this threshold further solidify sentiment. Realistic challenges include unexpected clear skies enhancing radiational cooling to 14°C or prolonged cloud cover preventing the low—though current steering patterns make such shifts unlikely—with final JMA data expected by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
交易量
$45,016結束日期
2026-05-14市場開放時間
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts confirm a minimum temperature of 15°C for Tokyo on May 14 under partly cloudy skies transitioning to rain later, driving trader consensus to near-certainty on this outcome as reflected in market-implied odds. This positioning stems from high model agreement across JMA's short-range guidance and global ensembles like ECMWF, supported by a stable high-pressure ridge suppressing colder air advection amid typical mid-May climatological lows of 14–18°C at Tokyo's observatory. Overnight observations already approaching this threshold further solidify sentiment. Realistic challenges include unexpected clear skies enhancing radiational cooling to 14°C or prolonged cloud cover preventing the low—though current steering patterns make such shifts unlikely—with final JMA data expected by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$45,016結束日期
2026-05-14市場開放時間
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts confirm a minimum temperature of 15°C for Tokyo on May 14 under partly cloudy skies transitioning to rain later, driving trader consensus to near-certainty on this outcome as reflected in market-implied odds. This positioning stems from high model agreement across JMA's short-range guidance and global ensembles like ECMWF, supported by a stable high-pressure ridge suppressing colder air advection amid typical mid-May climatological lows of 14–18°C at Tokyo's observatory. Overnight observations already approaching this threshold further solidify sentiment. Realistic challenges include unexpected clear skies enhancing radiational cooling to 14°C or prolonged cloud cover preventing the low—though current steering patterns make such shifts unlikely—with final JMA data expected by evening.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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