Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district, where strong voter registration advantages and the effects of Proposition 50 redistricting have preserved favorable terrain for Democrats ahead of the November 2026 general election. Traders reflect this reality with overwhelming consensus around a Democratic hold, driven by Carbajal's consistent reelection margins and the absence of competitive Republican fundraising or polling traction among primary challengers such as Bob Smith. The June 2 top-two primary is expected to advance two Democrats, limiting general-election upside for Republicans. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain limited to an unexpected primary shakeup, a major scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually strong national midterm headwinds for the president's party.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$17,816 交易量
$17,816 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$17,816 交易量
$17,816 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$9,935 交易量
94%
共和党
$7,881 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district, where strong voter registration advantages and the effects of Proposition 50 redistricting have preserved favorable terrain for Democrats ahead of the November 2026 general election. Traders reflect this reality with overwhelming consensus around a Democratic hold, driven by Carbajal's consistent reelection margins and the absence of competitive Republican fundraising or polling traction among primary challengers such as Bob Smith. The June 2 top-two primary is expected to advance two Democrats, limiting general-election upside for Republicans. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain limited to an unexpected primary shakeup, a major scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually strong national midterm headwinds for the president's party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
交易量
$17,816结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district, where strong voter registration advantages and the effects of Proposition 50 redistricting have preserved favorable terrain for Democrats ahead of the November 2026 general election. Traders reflect this reality with overwhelming consensus around a Democratic hold, driven by Carbajal's consistent reelection margins and the absence of competitive Republican fundraising or polling traction among primary challengers such as Bob Smith. The June 2 top-two primary is expected to advance two Democrats, limiting general-election upside for Republicans. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain limited to an unexpected primary shakeup, a major scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually strong national midterm headwinds for the president's party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$17,816结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district, where strong voter registration advantages and the effects of Proposition 50 redistricting have preserved favorable terrain for Democrats ahead of the November 2026 general election. Traders reflect this reality with overwhelming consensus around a Democratic hold, driven by Carbajal's consistent reelection margins and the absence of competitive Republican fundraising or polling traction among primary challengers such as Bob Smith. The June 2 top-two primary is expected to advance two Democrats, limiting general-election upside for Republicans. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain limited to an unexpected primary shakeup, a major scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually strong national midterm headwinds for the president's party.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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